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    SCENARIOS: How Bren, Blacklist, Omega, Nexplay can make the playoffs

    With only a week remaining, it's do-or-die for these teams
    Apr 6, 2022
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    THE FINAL WEEK of the MPL Philippines could still pack a few surprises up its sleeve, as the final list of teams who'll move on to the playoffs is still very much in the air.

    Four teams — RSG Philippines, ECHO PH, TNC, and Onic PH — have already secured their playoff positions. However, the remaining four teams left are up for a bloodbath. Only two of the remaining four will proceed.

    The race for the final playoff spots is heavily contested as Nexplay EVOS, Blacklist International, Omega Esports, and Bren Esports all still have a lifeline left. For MLBB fans, there's a tantalizing web of possibilities.

    Some fans have tried to make diagrams, while others decided to parse Neil “Midnight” De Guzman’s calculations. Either way, the community has had varied reactions: excited to see the final outcome, saddened to see the slim chances of their favorite team proceed, or confused from the millions of possibilities that could rival Dr. Strange’s predictions.

    Given everything that was said, now let’s take a look at the current standing and assess which among the remaining teams have a higher chance of reaching the playoffs.

    Current Standings:

    Nexplay EVOS – 16 points (Two games remaining)

    Blacklist International – 14 points (Only one game left)

    Omega Esports – 13 points (Two games left)

    Bren Esports – 10 points (Two games left)

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      Nexplay EVOS - 16 points (Two games remaining)

      Among all four teams, it can be argued that Nexplay is currently in the best position to move on to the playoffs. Besides boasting the most number of points, they also have the benefit of not going up against any of the other remaining playoff hopefuls.

      This doesn't mean that it's all smooth sailing for the team. They will have to contend against two of the toughest contenders for the MPL trophy.

      First is TNC, who made a lot of headlines for their resurgence. Afterwards they’ll have to deal with ECHO PH, a team blessed with starpower left and right.

      Winning against both teams would either give them 22 points (max) or 20 points (min)... above the maximum points that the other remaining three teams could attain.

      But what if they lost both games, while securing two points? At 18 points, they could still secure a playoff spot. Even if the remaining three teams secure the maximum points left, our calculations reveal that the Roaring Tigers are playoff-bound.

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      Things will only become problematic if NXP is swept in the remaining games. They would have to pray that Omega will win against both Bren Esports and Blacklist International.

      Verdict: High chance

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      Blacklist International – 14 points (Only one game left)

      Blacklist’s win against RSG PH during Week 7 was definitely an important momentum booster for them as it gave them a better chance to reach the playoffs.

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      However, unlike the other three teams, Blacklist only has one chance — and they have to make the best of it. It won't be easy: Their final game will be against their rivals Omega Esports, who are known for their clutch heroics in pressure situations. (Just look at their sudden sweep against Nexplay EVOS as proof.)

      Without the V33Wise tandem, it would be interesting to see if they could survive any of Omega’s potential last minute surprises.

      One thing is certain, though: The Codebreakers need to sweep Omega at all costs as that would give them 17 points, a threshold that neither Bren nor Omega could reach since both of them are only limited to 16 points.

      But let’s say Blacklist won 2-1 against Omega. Would this be enough? They would attain 16 points overall, but this would give a point to the latter, which they could capitalize on.

      If Omega wins against Bren and secures a single point against Blacklist, that would also give them 16 points. But based on the overall win-loss record, Omega has the upper hand against Blacklist, meaning it will be the MSC champions who will proceed to the next round.

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      Verdict: Slim chance

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      Omega Esports – 13 points (Two games left)

      Barangay Omega’s remaining two games are against Blacklist International and Bren Esports puts them at an awkward spot that would be enough to give Coach Jomie “Pakbet” Abalos a migraine.

      If Omega manages to prevail against both of them, they would either gain 19 points (max) or 17 points (min), eliminating their foes.

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      If they win against Bren while getting a point from Blacklist, that would give them a maximum of 17 points and a minimum of 16 points. A tiebreaker will happen in case Nexplay gets brushed aside by both TNC and ECHO PH, but given the head-to-head matchup between Omega and Nexplay, Omega has the upper hand and the playoff spot.

      However, if they win against Bren yet get swept by Blacklist, there’s a huge chance for Omega to be ousted.

      Sweeping Bren, while suffering from a reverse against Blacklist, would limit them to 16 points and they need to hope that Nexplay doesn’t earn any points in the remaining games.

      On the other hand, winning against Bren, while getting swept by Blacklist, would instantly eliminate Omega.

      But what happens if they lose against Bren? Not only will they have to focus on their match against Blacklist but they also need to consider the Bren-TNC battle, leading to a multitude of outcomes.

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      For example, securing a point from Bren while winning against Blacklist will give them 16 points, above Blacklist’s 14 and Bren’s maximum 15 points. Losing to Blacklist on the other hand would force Omega to hope that Bren doesn’t sweep the Phoenix, let alone win in case Blacklist goes 2-0 against Omega.

      Verdict: A decent chance

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      Bren Esports – 10 points (Two games left)

      Compared to the other three teams, Bren’s chances are...let’s face it, abysmal.

      Here’s the thing. If Bren manages to sweep both Omega and TNC, they still need to wait for the outcome of the matchup between Omega and Blacklist.

      If Bren sweeps their remaining games while the Codebreakers dominate Omega, that would give Blacklist 17 points — above the 16 points of Bren Esports and the 13 points of the defending MSC champs, eliminating the latter two teams.

      Even if Nexplay gets swept and limits themselves to 16 points, the team's head-to-head meeting against Bren would still give the Roaring Tigers an advantage since Nexplay mopped up the floor with Bren in both their regular season duels.

      Bren’s glimmer of hope would only happen if Omega snatches a point from Blacklist. The two World Champions would then have 16 points while Omega would only secure 14. However, based on the overall win-loss record, Bren would have the advantage over Blacklist, granting the M2 champs their playoff spot.

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      Once thing is certain: Bren cannot lose any of their remaining games, especially against Omega.

      Verdict: In need of a miracle

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