OUT of seven teams still in contention in the UAAP Season 86 women's volleyball tournament, three are already through to the Final Four and the rest are vying for the last semis spot. In addition, just four teams are still statistically capable of securing twice-to-beat advantages.
League leader University of Sto. Tomas (10-1), defending champion La Salle (9-1) and last year's finalist National University (9-2) are all assured of at least a top four finish.
It is also worth noting that there are still a few matchups to come involving the three teams already in the Final Four, which could ultimately decide the final order - and the two twice-to-beat teams. La Salle will face NU on Apr. 13 and UST to close out the prelims on Apr. 27.
READ: Seven PVL teams fighting for places in Final Four. See SCENARIOS
Although a distant fourth at 6-4, Far Eastern University's semis spot can still be jeopardized by Ateneo (3-8) if the former loses all its remaining games and the latter sweeps its closing stretch. A 6-8 tie between both sides will lead to a one-game playoff for the No. 4 seed.
Ateneo's semis fate is parallel to that of the two eligible backmarkers in University of the East and Adamson, both with 2-8 records. Once any of these three teams lose just one more game from here on out, they'll be knocked out of the Final Four race.
From a brewing three-way logjam at the top to a prospective last-gasp FEU resurgence, here's how the twice-to-beat advantages can be clinched.
#1 UST (10-1)
GAMES LEFT: FEU (Apr. 13), UE (Apr. 21), La Salle (Apr. 27)
UST has inside track on the top seed with three matches left to play. If they keep hold of the No. 1 post, it will mark the first top-seed prelims finish for the Tigresses since Season 60 in 1997 where they went on to win the title for a second straight year.
Even if second-seed La Salle has a game at hand at 9-1, UST can lock in the top seed if it completes a hat-trick of wins, including its prelims finale against La Salle.
Simply put, 13 is the 'magic number' in terms of wins to finish the prelims on top - and only one of either UST or La Salle can hit the all-important benchmark, granted that they'll first win their prior assignments before their final faceoff.
In such a tight race, losing all three matches may still leave a slim door open for UST to score a top two spot if La Salle and NU similarly struggle in the home stretch. This may lead to either a one-game playoff for the No. 2 seed or a three-way tie for first place with identical 12-2 or 11-3 records.
#2 LA SALLE (9-1)
GAMES LEFT: NU (Apr. 14), Adamson (Apr. 17), Ateneo (Apr. 21), UST (Apr. 27)
Still with a game at hand, the defending champions will be dealt the exact same scenarios with UST in the chase for a twice-to-beat advantage if they first clear one crucial hurdle come Sunday: NU.
A win over NU and no more than one loss in its final three matches against Adamson, Ateneo and UST will keep La Salle on track for at least a one-game playoff for the No. 2 seed.
But if La Salle loses its second-round match against NU, it will pave a clear path for UST to take the top seed if it wins its last three matches. And if UST defeats La Salle and NU wins all its remaining matches, the Lady Spikers will miss out on a twice-to-beat for the first time since Season 81 in 2019.
#3 NU (9-2)
GAMES LEFT: La Salle (Apr. 13), Adamson (Apr. 20), FEU (Apr. 24)
Even with one more defeat than UST and La Salle at this point of the season, all is not lost for NU's twice-to-beat bid.
With a UST-La Salle match still to come, it guarantees at least one of the two teams to drop to two losses — possibly level with NU if it pulls off its own hattrick of wins against La Salle, Adamson and FEU.
Statistically speaking, albeit far from ideal, NU can afford to lose at most twice in its last three matches only if one or both UST and La Salle will lose three more times before the end of the elimination round.
#4 FEU (6-4)
GAMES LEFT: UST (Apr. 13), UE (Apr. 17), UP (Apr. 20), NU (Apr. 24)
As it stands, FEU is one win away from completing this season's Final Four cast regardless of how Ateneo, UE and Adamson's remaining matches play out. The Lady Tamaraws will have four attempts to land a Final Four berth, two of which against semis-bound teams in UST and NU.
However, their path to a twice-to-beat advantage may be quite the long shot but isn't a lost cause just yet.
A perfect four-game run to finish the season won't be enough as it'll take at least two teams among UST, La Salle and NU to end the elimination round with four defeats. Such a scenario only happens if UST and NU lose their last three matches and La Salle going three-of-four.
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