ONLY the finest of margins separate a tight-knit field in the 2024 PVL All-Filipino Conference with just two weeks left in the elimination round.
Each of the 12 sides either has three or four more matches left to play before the Final Four cast is decided. Five teams, meanwhile, are already out of the running, namely Nxled, Farm Fresh, Galeries Tower, Capital1 and Strong Group Athletics.
That leaves seven teams in the hunt for the semis spots. But as much as top four placements matter when it comes to postseason play, there won't be any twice-to-beat bonuses up for grabs as each of the four semifinalists will face each other again in a single-round robin Final Four format.
READ: Chery Tiggo zeroes in on Final Four spot after big win over Cignal
At such a crucial stretch of the season, it is worth noting how match points will be of utmost importance in the event of tiebreaks. A team earns three match points for a three or four-set win, two match points for a five-set win and one match point for a five-set loss.
Here's how each of the last seven teams can barge into the Final Four.
#1 CHOCO MUCHO (7-1; 21 points)
GAMES LEFT: Strong Group Athletics (Apr. 13), Creamline (Apr. 18), Farm Fresh (Apr. 23)
As the league-leader both record-wise and match points-wise, Choco Mucho has the inside track not only on a semis spot but also on the top seed.
The Flying Titans have quite a straightforward path to a place in the top four. It will just take at least two more three or four-set wins against Strong Group Athletics, Creamline and/or Farm Fresh to reach back-to-back semifinals for only the second time in club history.
To avoid complications, a superior set ratio (sets won divided by sets lost) for Choco Mucho (3.833 SR) particularly over the three teams tied for third place at 6-2 in Petro Gazz (2.750 SR), Creamline (2.000 SR) and Chery Tiggo (2.11) will be an important safety net should any of the four teams share the same match points by the end of the elimination round.
#2 PLDT (7-1; 20 points)
GAMES LEFT: Chery Tiggo (Apr. 16), Cignal (Apr. 20), Creamline (Apr. 25)
PLDT's strong run of form will face its toughest test yet in a closing three-game stretch against three of last year's semifinalists in Chery Tiggo, Cignal and Creamline.
The High Speed Hitters' road to safety is somewhat identical to that of Choco Mucho. But statistically speaking, two wins in three or four sets and at least a five-set loss in their last three matches will be enough to send PLDT through to the Final Four for only the third time as a PVL club.
Similarly, a superior set ratio for PLDT (4.200), the best in the league thus far, will be important in the event of multiple tiebreaks.
#3 PETRO GAZZ (6-2; 19 points)
GAMES LEFT: Cignal (Apr. 16), Galeries Tower (Apr. 20), Nxled (Apr. 27)
No win is a given in the PVL but Petro Gazz will have to make the most of a favorable home stretch against Cignal and also-ran sides Galeries Tower and Nxled to close out the elimination round.
If PLDT needs two three or four-set wins and at least a five-set loss to advance, Petro Gazz can march into the Final Four for the eighth time with at least two three or four-set wins and at least a five-set win.
The Angels have been on the PVL podium in six of the last nine conferences and emerged as champions the last time the semifinals was played in a single-round robin format back in the 2022 PVL Reinforced Conference where they finished second in the semis before sweeping Cignal in the best-of-three finals.
#4 CREAMLINE (6-2; 18 points)
GAMES LEFT: Nxled (Apr. 13), Choco Mucho (Apr. 18), PLDT (Apr. 25)
The defending champions face uncharted waters, with its Final Four spot hanging in the balance following two defeats since its 19-game unbeaten run came to an end at the hands of Chery Tiggo.
Winning all three of their remaining matches in either three or four sets guarantees Creamline at least the fourth-seed (maximum of 27 match points), regardless if Chery Tiggo also does the same in its last three matches (maximum of 26 match points).
Should the Cool Smashers only manage two three or four-set wins, they will now hope for Chery Tiggo to drop the same or more match points and have an inferior set ratio than them to advance to the semifinals.
The former scenario also applies if Creamline wins just one of their last three matches. However, Petro Gazz should also have the same fate with Chery Tiggo in this case in order for Creamline to secure a top four spot.
#5 CHERY TIGGO (6-2; 17 points)
GAMES LEFT: PLDT (Apr. 16), Akari (Apr. 20), Galeries Tower (Apr. 25)
Riding on a four-game win streak since snapping Creamline's 19-game unbeaten run, Chery Tiggo is still narrowly outside the top four by virtue of one less match point than Creamline (CCS 18 - 17 CTC).
If Chery Tiggo wins its last three games in three or four sets, Creamline or Petro Gazz must have at least a five-set loss (drop at least one match point) if they score two wins in three or four sets and an inferior set ratio for the Crossovers to advance.
But if they only get two three or four-set wins and a five-set win, Creamline must lose at least one five-setter or Petro Gazz lose at least one match in three or four sets, both with an inferior set ratio.
#6 CIGNAL (5-3; 16 points)
GAMES LEFT: Petro Gazz (Apr. 16), PLDT (Apr. 20), Capital1 (Apr. 27)
Cignal's back-to-back bronze medal streak is in peril following a three-sets loss to fellow semis-seeking side Chery Tiggo on Thursday.
The HD Spikers' best case scenario from here on out is to win all three of its remaining games against PLDT, Chery Tiggo and Capital1 in three or four sets while hoping that at least two of Petro Gazz, Creamline and Chery Tiggo lose at least one game in three or four sets.
As is the case with the other teams, a superior set ratio will come into play should there be multiple ties in match points.
#7 AKARI (4-5; 12 points)
GAMES LEFT: Chery Tiggo (Apr. 20), Strong Group Athletics (Apr. 27)
Two games remain for Akari to close out the elimination round. Winning both, however, still won't guarantee a breakthrough semifinals appearance as multiple results must first come their way.
Scoring back-to-back three or four-set wins will be the best-case scenario for the Chargers. However, it will take just one more win for current fourth-seed Creamline to rule Akari out of semifinals contention and it could be a Creamline win at the expense of Akari's sister club Nxled on Saturday that may put an end to their top four bid.
In addition, Akari's tedious path to the semifinals will also involve Creamline, Chery Tiggo and Cignal all losing their last matches in order for the Chargers' possible maximum haul of 18 match points to stand a chance over their co-contenders.
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