FOUR teams, three games to play each, two weeks, one spot left.
There's only room for just one more team to complete the UAAP Season 86 men's basketball Final Four cast after UP, NU, and La Salle took the first three semifinal places in succession last Wednesday,
Here's how Ateneo, Adamson, UE or FEU can catch the last bus to the Final Four in a thrilling finish to the two-round round-robin phase.
ADAMSON (5-6)
Games left: Ateneo (Nov. 12), NU (Nov. 15), UE (Nov. 19)
Having won two of its last three games over FEU and also-ran UST, the ball is in Adamson's hands as the incumbent fourth-seed despite an identical win-loss card with Ateneo.
It goes without saying that Sunday's rematch between the Eagles and Falcons after their first-round clash was decided by a game-winning trey in overtime from Adamson's Vince Magbuhos, will carry major Final Four implications.
Whichever between Adamson and Ateneo can go three-of-three in the closing stretch will claim the last Final Four spot, regardless of how UE or FEU fare in the final weekend of prelims play.
But if neither team can sweep their remaining games, two-of-three will suffice for an outright Final Four berth if the other can only capture at most one win, UE loses at least two of its last three, and FEU loses all of its last three.
ATENEO (5-6)
Games left: Adamson (Nov. 12), UE (Nov. 15), La Salle (Nov. 18)
From its longest skid in a decade to a rare slump in form, the Blue Eagles have been treading uncharted waters for the most part of this season.
But for the defending champions, their title-retention bid ain't over just yet.
Ateneo is essentially facing the exact same scenarios facing Adamson due to their identical records — hence, the winner of their grudge match in two days' time will take pole position in the four-way race to the Final Four.
The same terms apply in Ateneo's semis bid in which a three-game sweep of their closing prelims games can send them through to the Final Four, notwithstanding the results of its fellow semis-seeking rivals.
But it must also be said that a knockout game for fourth-place in the event of a tie after the prelims is highly likely, which may involve two of Adamson, Ateneo, or UE.
UE (4-7)
Games left: La Salle (Nov. 12), Ateneo (Nov. 15), Adamson (Nov. 19)
UE faces an uphill battle to secure the last semis ticket. But what will fuel them most about their closing three-game stretch is how they are in full control of their Final Four destiny.
UE's last three opponents in the elimination round are the three teams placed directly above them in the team standings — La Salle (3rd), Adamson (4th), and Ateneo (5th).
That said, the Red Warriors' daunting task ahead is to take their leading foes down in order to make the move up.
Should UE lose its next game to La Salle, they won't be knocked out of the Final Four race with a possible 4-8 card since either Ateneo or Adamson will slide to a 5-7 record.
The above-mentioned scenario remains surmountable for the Warriors simply because their last two opponents happens to be Ateneo and Adamson.
Albeit still dependent on the results of the Adamson-NU and Ateneo-La Salle games, a win for UE over the Adamson-Ateneo winner can bring them to within arm's reach of at least a playoff for fourth place — moreso if they can also defeat the loser of the said matchup.
FEU (3-8)
Games left: UP (Nov. 11), La Salle (Nov. 15), UST (Nov. 18)
Among the four remaining teams in the Final Four hunt, FEU has the longest road ahead and will need more than a few results apart from their own to go their way.
Simply put, the Tamaraws need to win all of their last three games to stay in the running for at least a fourth-place playoff.
And as it stands, one more defeat for FEU in its last three games will mark the end of its Season 86 campaign.
What also makes FEU's Final Four bid slimmer is that it'll no longer meet any of its three direct rivals to end the season after completing the season sweep over Ateneo and losing both Round 2 games against UE and Adamson.
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