IT all comes down to one last day of elimination round play to determine how the Final Four will take shape in the UAAP Season 87 women’s volleyball tournament.
Defending champion National U has the top seed and first twice-to-beat advantage on lock.
READ: Tensions rise late in FEU's four-set triumph over La Salle
Meanwhile, Far Eastern University stands as No. 4 for the second straight season despite the possibility of still sharing a 9-5 record in a three-way tie with University of Santo Tomas and La Salle.
As such, the Lady Bulldogs and the Lady Tamaraws will run it back in this year’s Final Four, with the former still in possession of a playoff incentive.
That leaves the Golden Tigresses and the Lady Spikers as the last two teams in contention to finish prelims play in second-place.
And for the third straight season, España and Taft will cross paths for a spot in the finals.
So, how can UST and La Salle arm themselves with the other twice-to-beat advantage?
UST (9-4): Win vs. NU to secure No. 2, twice-to-beat advantage
This two-way race for the Final Four bonus hinges on how the Golden Tigresses will fare against their title tormentor in the Lady Bulldogs.
Come Sunday when UST and NU close out the elimination round, it will simply take a win over the defending champions to secure the twice-to-beat bonus.
This will lift the Golden Tigresses to a 10-4 record that is enough to surpass La Salle’s 9-5 card for No. 2.
However, beating National U at any level is a feat easier said than done even if it will be a non-bearing game for the reigning titlists.
Also worth noting, however, is that this will be the Lady Bulldogs’ first UAAP match in 15 days since sweeping Ateneo before the Holy Week break last Apr. 13.
Will the cobwebs affect the blue-and-gold’s return to action just before the Final Four and will it give UST the opening it needs to finish in the Top Two?
La Salle (9-5): UST loss to NU, then win one-game playoff vs. UST for No. 2
After losing to FEU in its elimination round finale, La Salle will be reduced to an interested spectator come Sunday’s NU-UST showdown.
The Lady Spikers must hope for a Lady Bulldogs triumph over the Golden Tigresses to draw level with their eventual Final Four opponent at 9-5.
As per league rules, a tie for the No. 2 spot will only be decided through a one-game playoff instead of usual tiebreaker metrics such as match points and set ratios.
In the event National U defeats UST, this one-game playoff for the second seed will take place on Apr. 30 (Wednesday) at a yet-to-be-confirmed venue.
But if the Golden Tigresses finally get one over the Lady Bulldogs, the black-and-gold will once again have the No. 2 seed and last twice-to-beat advantage against La Salle just like last season.
And in their past two Final Four meetings, the team with the twice-to-beat advantage went on to win the series (La Salle in Season 85; UST in Season 86).
FEU (9-5): Inferior set ratio drops FEU to No. 4
There’s an outright reason why FEU is no longer in the race for a twice-to-beat despite winning over La Salle and opening the door for a three-way tie at 9-5 at the end of elims.
For a clearer understanding of the numbers, here’s where UST, La Salle, and FEU stand ahead of the final day of prelims play:
- #2 UST: 9-4 - 27 pts - 33:19 (1.737 SR)
- #3 La Salle: 9-5 - 27 pts - 33:22 (1.500 SR)
- #4 FEU: 9-5 - 27 pts - 32:23 (1.391 SR)
In the event of a triple-tie, the team with the first inferior tiebreak metric — may it be match points or set ratios — will settle for No. 4.
It will leave the two teams with superior numbers vying for the No. 2 seed in a one-game playoff.
If UST was to lose in three or four sets to NU, there will also be a triple-tie in match points at 27-all.
The thing is, the Golden Tigresses' worst possible final set ratio will stand at 1.500 — making it impossible for the Lady Tams at 1.391 SR to catch up.
As such, FEU will wind up as the statistical backburner in a three-way tie.
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