LADY luck frowned on Nxled in the 2025 PVL Draft Lottery.
From having the best chances to win the first overall pick, the Chameleons somehow landed the lowest lottery pick at No. 4.
READ: Capital1 gets chance at drafting Belen after winning PVL lottery
The way Nxled team manager Dzi Gervacio sees it, it was simply a matter of the luck of the lottery not swinging their way.
“It's crazy, nanginig ako. Coming to today's lottery, at the back of my head, it is still a lottery. The chances, you never know what could happen,” Gervacio said.
“It's not so favorable for Nxled Chameleons, but again, I feel like this is gonna be such a deep draft batch […] At least at the end of the day, we're still at number four. I think that's a good spot to land."
But how did the chance at the No. 1 pick evaporate into thin air in a matter of minutes?
Breaking down the lottery
Each team had a designated number of balls to be drawn based on their combined rankings from the last two PVL conferences.
From the 10 balls in the pot for the No. 1 pick, four were for Nxled, three for Capital1, two for Galeries Tower and one for Farm Fresh.
The latter two teams had a tiebreak hours before the draft lottery which saw the Highrisers gain one more ball in the draw over the Foxies, two to one.
In that first draw made by 2024 PVL Invitational Conference MVP Michele Gumabao, Nxled had a 40 percent chance to go number one.
But the ball bore the Capital1 logo, meaning Gumabao drew one of three Solar Spikers balls to secure the No. 1 pick after having a 30 percent chance of doing so.
From there, all three Capital1 balls were taken off the pot.
Seven balls were left, increasing Nxled’s chances — still with four balls — to take the No. 2 pick instead at 57 percent.
Galeries Tower had a 29 percent chance while Farm Fresh had a 14 percent chance to go number two in the second draw.
2024-25 PVL All-Filipino Conference Finals MVP MJ Phillips went on to draw one of two Highrisers balls to send the Chameleons further down the order.
One final lottery round determined which teams will go three and four in the drafting order, with Nxled’s four balls going up against Farm Fresh’s one and only ball.
It was an 80 percent chance that time around for the Chameleons to be given the third overall pick, yet Lady Luck smiled on the Foxies as Gumabao drew their lone ball out the pot.
Audible gasps were heard at the studio where the lottery was held as each pick was just as surprising as the next.
Better surprises this time
With at most 60 players to choose from, Gervacio knows that the No. 4 pick isn’t the worst possible position to be in come draft night.
The abundance of talent on hand, not only from the UAAP but also from other leagues and parts of the country, is what Nxled has its sights on from here on out ahead of the two-day combine from May 30 to 31 and draft night proper on June 8.
As such, there won’t be any shoo-ins just yet for the Chameleons’ fourth pick as they look to keep their doors open for surprises — hopefully the better kind this time.
“It really depends talaga kasi now, it's still recruitment season. There's still a lot of people who are free agents. There's still a lot of athletes who are knocking on our doors,” Gervacio said.
“You never know, a name suddenly comes up or someone from the combine does so well, someone who's not from NCR, someone who we haven't seen on TV steps up on the combine. A lot of hope for all positions.
“A lot of things are still up in the air for Nxled for our roster this season […] but we're always gonna be ready and we’ll still hope for the best.”
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