WITH the final lineup complete, Gilas Pilipinas is all set to defend the throne in the 2026 Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games. But as the recent pair of blowout losses against South Korea showed, the road to get there is a lot tougher this time around.
Gilas brings a far different team from the Hangzhou 2023 squad that ended the country’s 61-year gold medal drought, with no naturalized player Justin Brownlee and a much smaller lineup. They also face tighter competition from teams that bolstered their rosters in their quest for Asiad gold.
READ Bahrain lists four naturalized players in Asiad lineup
The embarrassing losses to Korea in the friendlies emphasized one truth: Repeating as champions will be an uphill battle — and treating any foe lightly is a slippery slope.
With the Asian Games basketball wars about to begin, we cut through the noise as we rank every potential opponent from least to most likely derail Gilas’ bid for back-to-back Asiad glory. This is a no BS, no sugarcoating ranking that factors in recent form, analytics, matchup breakdowns, style of play and knockout-stage variance. Some teams have yet to declare final rosters as of press time, so historical performance against Gilas served as basis for analysis. Plus, we also included intangible reasons not found on stat sheets to sort the contenders from the pretenders.
Let’s get to it, starting with the least likely teams from other groups that Gilas will face.
Goners after the group stage
Indonesia got in as hosts but they’re in for a rude awakening. Grouped with South Korea and co-host Japan, the realistic chance for an undersized Indonesia to advance with little experience at this high-level Asian basketball competition is slim to none. Slim because they also have Saudi Arabia in the group, a team they have a 1-2 record against in recent head-to-heads. Things do not look good for the co-host squad.
Qatar will likely suffer an early exit as they are in a tough group with Iran, Jordan, and Chinese Taipei. Those three are far superior teams with deeper rosters, more talented players, better naturalized imports, and more proven systems in international play than Qatar. As Gilas is less likely to top their own group, there’s not much of a chance the Philippine path to Asiad gold will intersect with Qatar.
Slight chance, favorable matchup
Saudi Arabia is a familiar foe for Gilas in past FIBA World Cup qualifying windows as well as the FIBA Asia Cup. They could sneak in the Top 8 of the Asian Games, being the more experienced team compared to Indonesia in their group. But they will likely rank low while Gilas could potentially be in the middle of the pack. While it’s not likely that the two teams will battle it out in the knockout rounds, but if it happens, Gilas has the upper hand with the deeper, faster lineup that can do damage against Saudi’s defense.
Kazakhstan can make things tricky for Gilas right at the group stage. The lowest ranked team in the group, this cohesive team has enough size and physicality to wear down the undersized Gilas frontcourt. One thing Gilas cannot do is to underestimate Kazakhstan, especially as this game comes right after a testy showdown with a surprisingly stacked Bahrain. Back-to-back losses heading into a China battle could end Gilas’ hopes even before the knockout phase. Still, Gilas has the edge in terms of talent and pace. This is a winnable game for Gilas, especially if they keep errors to a minimum and take care of the boards.
Danger lurks
Chinese Taipei is a darkhorse to emerge in a tough group with Iran and Jordan. If they advance past the group phase, facing Gilas would depend on many variables. Yet Chinese Taipei may not be a favorable opponent for this version of the Philippine team. In recent encounters in FIBA competition, Chinese Taipei has owned Gilas, including one game where Brownlee erupted for 39 points in a February meeting last year. Gilas tormentors Chen Ying-Chun, Lin Ting-Chien, and naturalized player Brandon Gilbeck banner this cohesive unit that could surprise even the favorites in their group.
Iran could emerge second in Group B behind Jordan, and if Gilas advances, a matchup with this Middle Eastern rival depends on certain things falling into place. Still, even with a lesser-known lineup, this Iran team gave the Kai Sotto-led Gilas team a scare last time they met. With an undersized roster in the Asiad, Gilas will find things tougher this time around against a bigger Iranian frontcourt surrounded by steady shooters and creators like Mobin Sheikhi and Matin Aghajanpour. The Gilas backcourt can match up well with Iran, but Justin Arana, Justin Baltazar, and Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser will have their hands full trying to keep up with the towers of Iran.
Real threats
Bahrain parades four naturalized players, with three listed 6-foot-10 or higher. One of them is a legit NBA talent in JaKarr Sampson. Combining that size with explosive perimeter scorers and shooters could make Bahrain a problem that Gilas must not underestimate. As the first opponent to open the Asian Games title defense, Gilas will have to lock down on defense and put the pressure on an untested Bahrain backcourt. If Bahrain’s shooters connect and Gilas guards go cold, that could be a recipe for disaster. Gilas should come in and treat this as a playoff game right from tip-off to the last second. With China waiting at the end of the group phase, a loss here for Gilas will be potentially disastrous.
China is the tallest team in the tournament and have the size advantage on every position against Gilas. Even without rising NBA talent Yang Hansen, China will be trouble for Gilas in their group meeting. They have multiple players standing 6-foot-10 and above, led by Hu Jinqiu in the paint and Liao Sanning in the perimeter. China also traditionally treats the Asian Games seriously, and they have a score to settle with Gilas after a painful loss in Hangzhou. Losing to China in the group phase, and depending on the outcomes of their games against Bahrain and Kazakhstan, will put Gilas against top teams Korea or Japan early in the knockouts. That’s something Gilas will want to avoid if they seek an easier path to the throne.
Knockout killers
South Korea is bringing in almost the same lineup that played in the recent FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers, which also demolished this Gilas squad in two friendly matches prior to the Asian Games. In those friendlies, Korea showcased elite shooting and the cohesion that could spell trouble for other contenders in Asiad as well. In terms of size, Gilas and Korea are almost similar. But what makes Korea a nightmare possible matchup early in the knockout stage for Gilas is its athleticism and marksmanship. The South Korean team is fielding its best roster to date to end a 12-year Asian Games title drought, and with recent NBA callup Lee Hyun-Jung leading the way, they mean business. It will take some massive improvement from Gilas on defense and execution to avoid a battle against Korea with a win.
Host Japan may be without NBA players Rui Hachimura and Yuki Kawamura, but that does not make it pushover. They still have a stellar lineup with enough size (multiple players listed 6-foot-9 and higher) and splendid chemistry to make them true title contenders. Yuta Watanabe, Keisei Tominaga, Makoto Hiejima, Yuki Togashi, and naturalized big man Josh Hawkinson are just some of the big names leading this dynamic team that leans on crisp ball movement to exploit defensive lapses. Against an undersized Gilas, Japan will find plenty of those breakdowns as this PBA-backed All-Filipino squad has yet to find chemistry and have defensive issues to address.
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Jordan may be the biggest threat in dethroning Gilas as Asian Games champion. The Hangzhou 2023 silver medalist has a grudge against Gilas, especially after a bitter loss the last time they met in the FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers. Parading two naturalized players in proven scorer Dar Tucker as well as Perrin Buford this time around, Jordan is intent on taking gold
as they have almost the same core led by Ahmad Al-Dwairi and Freddy Ibrahim. Abdullah Olajuwon also showed out as a dangerous playmaker and shooter against Gilas. This lineup may not be as towering as other contenders in Asiad, but what they lack in size, they make up for in talent and cohesion. Remember, Jordan gave New Zealand a scare the last time the two teams battled. With four explosive and dynamic scoring threats this time, Jordan may have just have enough to beat any team in this Asian Games. If they face Gilas, expect a hungrier Jordan team raring for revenge.
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