Who are the dark horse contenders in the NBA Playoffs?

Crunching the numbers for these underdogs
May 23, 2021
PHOTO: AP

THE BUCKS and Mavericks have drawn first blood. This is it, folks. It’s game time. Sixteen teams. One championship. One team to rule them all.

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The Play-In Tournament was a success for all its intents and purposes (despite whatever backlash it received throughout the season). But now, the real fun begins.

The regular season shows us a team's identity, its style of play, and how they match-up against the competition. However, everybody knows the playoffs are a different animal altogether.

While talent is still the major variable in determining a team’s postseason success, a lot of it also comes down to strategy, coaching adjustments, and actual player execution.

We know that pundits and fans have had their clear favorites all season long.

But who doesn’t love an underdog?

And now that the playoff bracket is finally set, we take a look at the dark horse contenders you should be watching out for heading into this year’s postseason.


Phoenix Suns

It's hard to bet against LeBron James, and that is why the Suns are here.

While Phoenix’s season has been spectacular, a first round bout with the Lakers looks unfavorable for them and their chances to make a deep playoff run.

Phoenix closed their season series with the Lakers at 2-1. Through 3 games, the Suns were able to slow down the defending champs. A bit. Take a look at the numbers when the LA faces off against Phoenix:

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But in those games, the Lakers were either missing LeBron, Anthony Davis or both at the same time.

Game 1 will be the first time Phoenix faces L.A in full force.

But even so, Phoenix can pull an upset despite being the higher seeded team.

Monty Williams has been elevated to a Coach of the Year candidacy. Chris Paul continues to turn back the clock. Devin Booker has had an All-Star year. Deandre Ayton has found his winning form. And the rest of the supporting cast has been solid.

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With the way this season has turned out and with the invaluable experience and leadership of CP3, the surging Suns have a path to the Finals even if Goliath is the first thing that stands in their way.


Denver Nuggets

Just like the Utah Jazz, the Denver Nuggets are on the list because they are pegged as an unproven commodity despite a conference finals appearance in last year’s playoffs.

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To make matters worse on paper, the Nuggets are without their second star in Jamal Murray.

But even without Murray in the fold, Denver went 13-5 the rest of the way and bagged the 3rd seed to close at 47-25 this year.

Michael Porter Jr. has risen to the occasion in his absence, averaging 19.0 ppg, and 7.3 ppg with a 54.2/44.5/79.1 shooting split for the season. He’s running for Most Improved Player and has reminded everyone why he should have been at least a top 10 pick in the 2018 Draft.

But from start to finish, one thing was clear: the team runs on MVP favorite, Nikola Jokic. The Joker has continued to be the fulcrum of the Nugget’s attack as he leads the league in touches per game at 101.0 tpg. He is a near walking triple double threat with 26.4 ppg on 56.6% shooting, 10.8 rpg, 8.3 apg and 1.3 spg.

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Questions about their defense have quieted down as they finished 8th in Opponent ppg (110.1), 2nd in Opponent fga (85.4), 11th in Opponent 3PT% (36.3%), and 1st in Opponent rpg (41.2) this season.

While pundits are looking at Denver as a potential first round upset in the West, it will be unwise to count them out already, especially with an MVP worthy season from Nikola Jokic.


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Milwaukee Bucks

Without a doubt, the Milwaukee Bucks are among the Beasts of the East, sitting at no. 3 and closing with a 46-26 record.

So why are they here? Because only the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets are favored to come out of the East.

Not to mention, the Bucks are pegged as another potential first round upset as they square off with the Miami Heat who dismantled them, 4-1, in last year's Eastern semi-finals. (They had to take some overtime to get there, but Game 1 shows, at least, that they're on the right track.

Through 72 games, Milwaukee has been a monster on offense averaging 118.7 ppg (1st), 91.8 fga (1st) on 48.7% shooting (3rd), 14.4 3pm (5th) converting at 38.9% (5th) and 25.5 apg (14th).

A bit of a concern, however, remains with regards to how the Bucks have regressed on defense as compared to last season:


Still, there is a strong case to be made that the sheer amount of talent on the team should be enough to match-up with the rest of the East and anyone who will come out of the West.

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On paper, the Big Three of Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday, along with their supporting cast, is more than enough to make their way to the NBA Finals.

At this point, Coach Budenholzer’s ability to fully commit to adjustments and different coverages in a series will be key in the Bucks championship aspirations this postseason.


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Miami Heat

Here’s a case of hedging all our bets: we’re also keeping an eye out on the Bucks’ foes in their series.

The Miami Heat haven’t looked like a championship contender for most of the season but they continue to be a team that other team’s recognize as a tough out in a playoff series.

Night in and night out, if there’s one thing you know the Heat can bring, it's the elite defense. Miami has only allowed opponents 108.0 ppg (5th) on 39.1 fgm (3rd) and 45.9% shooting (6th) in the regular season.

While opponents went crazy from behind the arc against the Heat at 39.1 3-pa per game (29th), taking and making baskets from inside the arc was much harder against them as they allowed only 46.1 2-fga (1st) and 24.8 fgm (1st).

And, in a playoff series against a championship coach like Erik Spoelstra, expect a difficult chess match.

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With the team nearing 100%, the Heat’s offense trended in the right direction as the season was drawing to a close.

In their last 15 games, they were 11th in points per game (114.6), 2nd in FG% (49.8%), 7th in 3pm (14.3 per game), 5th in 3P% (39.5%) and 6th in apg (26.9).

If the shots continue to fall for Miami’s shooters, while Playoff Jimmy and aggressive Bam are unleashed, and Goran Dragic pours in timely contributions, expect the Heat to make some noise in the East.


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Utah Jazz

Wait a minute. The best team in the league, a dark horse contender? We won’t blame you for asking, “What is the number one team in the NBA doing in this list?”

Well, despite being elite on both ends of the floor and showing consistency throughout this season, the Jazz are still overlooked and viewed by many as an unproven playoff team.

Since a semifinals appearance in Donovan Mitchell’s rookie year (‘17-’18), the team hasn’t gone further than the first round. Giving up a 3-1 series lead to the Denver Nuggets in the bubble still has a bitter taste for anyone looking to bet on the Jazz to make a run this year even as a #1 seed.

But everything has been fuel to their fire this season for Utah.

Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert have clocked-in an All-Star caliber year, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles are Sixth Man of the Year candidates, and Quin Snyder is in the running for Coach of the Year.

If what they have shown all season long is replicated in the playoffs, there shouldn’t be a doubt in anyone’s mind that they sit among the Best of the West.

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The Jazz have a legitimate chance to win it all, even if analysts and the odds aren’t leaning in their favor.

Strap in your seats, cause it's about to get real exciting.

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PHOTO: AP
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