THE Filipinas’ title-retention bid in the ASEAN MSIG Serenity Cup is on the bubble after suffering a 1-0 defeat against Australia U23 on Monday.
READ: Filipinas lose to Australia U23 in ASEAN Cup 2025
A goal conceded to Alana Jancevski in injury time in the first half proved costly, as the Philippines, the defending champion by winning the 2022 edition at home, now shares a similar record with Australia at second place with a 1-0-1 win-draw-loss record.
Myanmar is in first place with six points, being unbeaten in two games, including a 2-1 victory over the Australians.
The final day of the group stage on Wednesday will determine the two teams from Group B which will advance to the semifinals. Aside from the Philippines-Myanmar matchup, Australia U23 is also facing cellar-dweller Timor Leste.
As such, there is a possibility of a three-way tie for the top two spots in Group B with victories by the Philippines and Australia against their respective opponents.
If so, tiebreaker would be required to determine the semifinalists, as Myanmar, Philippines, and Australia would finish the group stage with six points or with similar 2-0-1 records.
How the Filipinas can make it
Under AFF rules, ties will be broken via head-to-head criteria, in the following order:
- Higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question.
- Superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question
- Higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question
Based from unofficial computations, Criteria No. 1 will no longer be applicable since each of the three teams would have one victory among themselves. Criteria No. 2 would then be used, with the Filipinas needing to win by at least two goals to enter the semifinals.
If the Philippines wins by a goal, Criteria No. 3 can still come into play, but then, they must win by a scoreline of at least 3-2 in order to make it through to the semifinals.
In short, to be certain, the Filipinas must win by two goals in order to progress, else be ousted from the MSIG Serenity Cup.
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