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    SCENARIOS: Assessing RSG, Onic, Omega, and Nexplay's playoff chances

    The final push begins for RSG, Onic, Omega, and Nexplay
    Apr 6, 2023
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    HOLY WEEK is certainly the best period for MPL PH teams to relax and detox from the usual stress and grind and this could also be a perfect time for fans to reflect on the Season 11 standings.

    With only one week left, only four teams have already secured their fate. For the likes of Bren Esports, ECHO PH, and Blacklist International, a playoff spot is already in the bag.

    Meanwhile, TNC Pro Team will have to wait for another season for their Biyaheng Tagumpay storyline.

    Now the remaining four teams namely RSG Slate PH, Onic PH, Omega Esports, and Nexplay EVOS are hoping to follow the footsteps of the playoff-bound teams, let's take a look at their chances.

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    RSG Slate PH

    CURRENT TOTAL POINTS: 18

    REMAINING MATCHES: 2 (against Nexplay EVOS and ECHO PH)

    MAX. POSSIBLE POINTS: 24

    For the Raiders to comfortably secure their playoff spot, 20 points is needed as that would put them above the maximum 19 points that both Nexplay and Onic can accumulate.

    But let's say they only reached 19 points, is the team still playoff bound?

    Upon checking on the 19-point tiebreaker scenarios of the remaining four teams, RSG matches the likes of Onic and Omega in terms of Match Win Rate (estimated at 43%), but remains steady in terms of Game Win Rate at 45%, somewhat close to Onic's 46%, and Omega's 44-50% range.

    Then when comparing the Raiders with the Neon Tigers in both match and game win rate, RSG stands tall as Nexplay only garners a 36-37% range.

    As long as RSG doesn't suffer from sweeps in their remaining games, they have an extremely high chance of securing their playoff slot.

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    Onic PH

    CURRENT TOTAL POINTS: 16

    REMAINING MATCHES: 1 (against Bren Esports)

    MAX. POSSIBLE POINTS: 19

    For Onic to confidently maintain their playoff hopes, they need to SWEEP BREN ESPORTS!

    Sounds like a tall task given that Bren is considered to be one of the title contenders for S11 given their dominance in the regular season.

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    If both Onic and Nexplay secure the maximum 19 points, the Hedgehogs have the edge as they prevailed in their head-to-head meetings over the Neon Tigers.

    But if they fail to sweep Bren, Onic will have to hope that the other teams suffer from losses.

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    Omega Esports

    CURRENT TOTAL POINTS: 15

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    REMAINING MATCHES: 2 (against ECHO PH and TNC Pro Team)

    MAX. POSSIBLE POINTS: 21

    With Mico "Mikko" Tabangay experiencing a resurgence and with the arrival of Louis Gabriel “Louis” Ariola, Omega can potentially unleash the full might of their crunch time prowess.

    Similar to RSG, Omega needs at least 19 points for their playoff spot. If they secure 2-1 victories over their next foes, and if a 19-point tiebreaker scenario happens between these teams, Omega has a 50% Match and Game Win rate, above the 43-46% average from both Onic and RSG, and way above Nexplay's 36-37% range.

    But what happens if let's say Omega secures a 2-0 sweep and a 1-2 loss? Their match win rate goes down to 43%, while their game win rate could reach around 44-46%, which is still above Nexplay's numbers.

    Anything below 19 points would mean that the Barangay needs lady luck to give the other teams heavy casualties.

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    Nexplay EVOS

    CURRENT TOTAL POINTS: 13

    REMAINING MATCHES: 2 (against RSG PH and Blacklist International)

    MAX. POSSIBLE POINTS: 19

    As mentioned earlier, the tiebreaker scenarios aren't in favor of Nexplay EVOS, given their record against Onic PH, and the low win rate numbers they have.

    Even if Omega failed to secure wins and Nexplay prevailed 2-1 against one of their foes, Omega still has the edge with their 42% Match Win Rate, way above Nexplay's 29%.

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    So what do they need to do? Sweep their foes, pray that the other teams drop points, and hope that the tiebreaker scenarios they might encounter wouldn't lead to their exile.

    Get more of the latest sports news & updates on SPIN.ph

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