WITH University of the East prevailing over Far Eastern University on Sunday, the race to the Final Four intensified further with five teams still in contention with one week to go in the elimination round.
Ateneo and Far Eastern University are in a tight race for the No. 1 spot but could find themselves at the bottom half, depending on the results of the other matches of defending champion La Salle and National University. After struggling in the first round, UE suddenly found itself still very much alive in the Final Four race.
This is how the teams are currently ranked after Sunday’s games:
ADMU 10-3
FEU 10-3
DLSU 9-3
NU 8-4
UE 7-5
Five games with Final Four implications will be played during the week. They are as follows:
Wednesday, September 10: UE vs DLSU, NU vs UST
Saturday, September 13: ADMU vs FEU, DLSU vs NU
Wednesday, September 16: UST vs UE
Here are the possible scenarios going into the final week of the regular season:
The winner of the FEU-Ateneo match on Saturday will claim the top-seed in the Final Four as shown by the first two scenarios below:
Scenario 1
FEU wins
DLSU wins over UE and NU
NU wins over UST, loses to DLSU
FEU 11-3
DLSU 11-3
ADMU 10-4
NU 9-5
- FEU will tie La Salle but the Tamaraws will gain the No. 1 spot after sweeping the Green Archers in their season series. La Salle will get the No. 2 and the final twice-to-beat incentive against Ateneo, which will drop to No. 3, with NU holding No. 4.
Scenario 2
ADMU wins
DLSU wins over UE and NU
NU wins over UST, loses to DLSU
ADMU 11-3
DLSU 11-3
FEU 10-4
NU 9-5
- Ateneo will tie La Salle with an 11-3 record but the Blue Eagles take No. 1 due to superior quotient after its 11-point victory in the first round. FEU will slip to No. 3 and will play defending champion La Salle, while NU takes No. 4.
The Green Archers, meanwhile, can’t afford to lose all of their games to UE and see the Red Warriors sweeping their remaining two games as they could drop to a playoff for the No. 4 seed in the Final Four.
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Scenario 3
FEU wins
DLSU loses to UE and NU
NU wins over UST and DLSU
UE wins over DLSU and UST
FEU 11-3
NU 10-4
ADMU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
UE 9-5
- NU faces Ateneo in a playoff for No. 2. DLSU faces UE in playoff for No. 4
Scenario 4
ADMU wins
DLSU loses to UE and NU
NU wins over UST and DLSU
UE wins over DLSU and UST
ADMU 11-3
FEU 10-4
NU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
UE 9-5
- FEU faces NU in a playoff for No. 2. DLSU faces UE in playoff for No. 4.
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Like the Green Archers, the Bulldogs also can’t afford to lose two straight games as they face the possibility of missing the Final Four, if the Red Warriors win their remaining two games.
Scenario 5
FEU wins
DLSU loses to UE, wins over NU
NU loses to UST and DLSU
UE wins over DLSU and UST
FEU 11-3
ADMU 10-4
DLSU 10-4
UE 9-5
NU 8-6
- Ateneo faces DLSU in a playoff for No. 2. UE takes No. 4. NU out of the Final Four
Scenario 6
ADMU wins
DLSU loses to UE, wins over NU
NU loses to UST and DLSU
UE wins over DLSU and UST
ADMU 11-3
FEU 10-4
DLSU 10-4
UE 9-5
NU 8-6
- FEU faces DLSU in a playoff for No. 2. UE takes No. 4. NU out of the Final Four.
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Even though La Salle loses its final two games, the Red Warriors still need to close out strong in their game against an already-eliminated squad in University of Santo Tomas on September 16, or else.
Scenario 7
FEU wins
DLSU loses to UE and NU
NU wins over UST and DLSU
UE wins over DLSU but loses to UST
FEU 11-3
NU 10-4
ADMU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
UE 8-6
- NU faces Ateneo in playoff for No. 2. UE out of the Final Four.
Scenario 8
ADMU wins
DLSU loses to UE and NU
NU wins over UST and DLSU
UE wins over DLSU and UST
ADMU 11-3
FEU 10-4
NU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
UE 8-6
- FEU faces NU in a playoff for No. 2. UE out of the Final Four.
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However, things will get complicated in case of a three-way tie for second place with FEU or Ateneo, La Salle and NU.
Scenario 9
FEU wins
DLSU wins over UE, loses to NU
NU wins over UST and DLSU
FEU 11-3
NU 10-4
ADMU 10-4
DLSU 10-4
- A playoff for No. 2 ensues between NU (at least +12) and Ateneo (-5) due to their superior quotient. La Salle (at least -7) slips to No. 4.
Scenario 10
ADMU wins
DLSU wins over UE, loses to NU
NU wins over UST and DLSU
ADMU 11-3
FEU 10-4
DLSU 10-4
NU 10-4
- The Bulldogs must win by five points or more against La Salle in order to force a playoff for No. 2 against FEU, which has the superior quotient over the three teams. If not, the Green Archers and the Tamaraws will battle in a playoff for the second-seed.
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