IT all comes down to one final weekend of prelims play to decide how the UAAP Season 86 men's basketball Final Four will shape up.
And as it stands, University of the Philippines (11-2) has inside track on the No. 1 seed but National University (10-3) and La Salle (10-3) aren't too far behind as they'll need certain results to go their way to complete a last lap overtake on the Maroons.
Meanwhile, Ateneo (7-6) can slam the door shut on Adamson (6-7) with just one more win to complete the Final Four cast. But all is not lost for the Falcons just yet.
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Here's all you need to know on how the Final Four picture could look like by Sunday evening, once the elimination round is done and dusted.
Ateneo (7-6) vs. La Salle (10-3)
What's at stake:
- Ateneo win
- #4 Ateneo, #5 Adamson
ADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOW ↓ - La Salle win (pending result of Adamson-UE; UP-NU games on Sunday)
- #1 La Salle, #2 playoff between NU and UP (if NU win)
- #1 UP, #2 La Salle, #3 NU (if UP win)
- #4 Ateneo (if Adamson loses), #4 playoff between Adamson and Ateneo (if Adamson wins)
Rivalry aside, there's a lot riding on what will be the 95th battle between Ateneo and La Salle in UAAP.
The checquered flag could soon wave in the race for the last semis spot if the Blue Eagles win over the Green Archers and complete the season sweep.
READ: La Salle rematch vs Ateneo 'never about revenge,' says Topex
In this case, a prospective 8-6 (win-loss) card won't be surmountable for the trailing Falcons regardless of how their prelims finale versus also-ran University of the East on Sunday plays out.
But should La Salle exact revenge and defeat Ateneo for only the second time in its last 11 meetings, Adamson would need to win over UE to force a playoff for the No. 4 spot.
Moreover, La Salle will be guaranteed at least a Top Two finish with a win over Ateneo — No. 1 seed if NU wins or No. 2 seed if UP wins.
An Adamson loss to UE in any of the above-mentioned scenarios will eliminate the Falcons from Final Four contention.
Adamson (6-7) vs. UE (4-9)
What's at stake:
- Adamson win AND Ateneo loss
- #4 playoff between Adamson and Ateneo
- Adamson loss OR Ateneo win
- #4 Ateneo, #5 Adamson (eliminated)
Simply put, Adamson's Final Four fate still hangs in the balance and will heavily depend on how the Ateneo-La Salle game on Saturday ends up.
READ: In a stormy season, Adamson Falcons simply refuse to go away quietly
If Ateneo beats La Salle, Adamson's prelims finale versus UE will be a no-bearing game as an eighth win would already be enough for the Blue Eagles to reach the Final Four.
The Falcons will then need a helping hand from their Taft counterparts to still have a fighting chance for a Final Four spot.
A La Salle win over Ateneo would also require an Adamson win over UE in order to force a knockout match for the No. 4 spot, which would be Adamson's second straight fourth-seed playoff should it happen.
UP (11-2) vs. NU (10-3)
What's at stake:
- UP win
- UP takes #1 seed
- UP win AND La Salle win
- #1 UP, #2 La Salle, #3 NU
ADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOW ↓ - UP win AND La Salle loss
- #1 UP, #2 playoff between NU and La Salle
- NU win AND La Salle win
- #1 La Salle, #2 playoff between NU and UP
- #1 NU (NU win by >/= 38 pts vs. UP), #2 playoff between La Salle and UP
- NU win AND La Salle loss
- #1 NU (win by >/= 19 pts vs. UP), #2 UP, #3 La Salle
- #1 UP, #2 NU (win by , #3 La Salle
It goes without saying that the two preceding matches (Ateneo-La Salle; Adamson-UE) will lay down the stakes when the league leaders square off in the prelims finale.
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However, regardless of any other result apart from its own, a UP win over NU will hand the No. 1 seed to the Maroons for the first time since the Final Four era began in 1993 (Season 56).
For NU, there still lies a path to the No. 1 seed if it can defeat UP by at least 19 points and La Salle loses to Ateneo or by at least 38 points in the event of a triple-tie with UP and La Salle at 11-3 (win-loss).
The rest of the permutations, including the chance of a three-way tie for first place, currently has La Salle taking the No. 1 seed bar a gargantuan effort from NU over UP.
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