PLAYER agent Marvin Espiritu no longer needs to hear it. He knows it.
Excitement is high with another fresh batch of players knocking on the PBA's doors. But for every draft class, there's a considerable amount of players who are on the edge of their seats anxiously awaiting what fate awaits them for the season.
"Inevitable yan para sa mga players," said the soft-spoken executive, who co-owns Espiritu Manotoc Basketball Management.
PBA players in the fringes of each team's lineup have every reason to be worried; the league can only accomodate so much. The 12 member teams have 15 roster spots up for grabs. Even accounting for the traditional spots for practice players, you may only have a figure hovering at about 200 PBA players maximum.
Espiritu, who takes care of the careers of a number of high-profile talents in the PBA, shared that he faces the same dillemma annually, with young bets hoping to get a crack at the league while veterans desperately cling on to their spots.
"If you're an established star player, alam natin na meron silang room sa liga, na-establish nila yung kanilang identity, and napatunayan na nila yung value nila as players and may demand pa rin sa kanila, even if you have an expiring contract, more or less alam mo na meron ka pa ring kontratang ine-expect," he said.
"But if you're a role player, a part of the second group, or a bench player, nasa isip mo na pwede kang palitan. Nandoon lagi yung worry kung mapapapirma ba ako o hindi."
Espiritu admitted that the anxiety is all the more evident this time with this year's batch of neophyte batch billed as one of the most talent-laden in a long time.
"Lalo na ngayon na alam natin na malalim yung draft, mas merong sense of anxiety sa kanila, for those part of the second and third group, kung mapapapirma pa sila," said the son of legendary sports agent Danny Espiritu.
That's just the reality of the business: that when one comes in, another one must go out.
"Understandable for teams yun na calculated na yung gamble nila," said Espiritu. "Some would rather sign a rookie compared sa veteran na nakita na nila cause they want to go young, bank on the upside and the room for development. Syempre mas advantage sa mas bata."
NLEX coach Yeng Guiao, however, believes there's no distinct bias for one side or the other, insisting that PBA coaches make the choices on a case-to-case basis.
To him, it all boils down to what the player can do on the court and his impact to the overall success of the team.
"Personally, I don't make the decision based entirely on whether he's a rookie or a veteran, and it's not even because of the cost or the salary," said Guiao, who is concurrently the general manager for the Road Warriors.
"Siguro papasok lang yung salary if everything else is even. That's the time you look at your cost, kung halos parehas lang. Or if mas mahal yung isa, doon ka sa mas mura. But kung alam mo na may advantage ka sa isa, the cost will be the least of your priorities cause all you want is to win. The primary reason should be who's going to make most impact and fit your team the best."
It's a given that rookie deals are cheaper options for teams, but Guiao said that weighing everything through, he'll always give a bit of an edge to the veterans.
"Siguro I'll favor the veterans slightly because you know what you're getting from them. Yung gamble mo, calculated na as compared sa rookies na no matter how good they are in their level, walang assurance na they will react well when they come up to the next level," said the fiery mentor.
"At least sa veterans, may konting basis ka na on making that decision. If I have doubts, the benefit goes to the veterans, the people I've already worked with, may ininvest ka nang oras, emotions, energy, and resources to. Titingnan mo rin yung time you spent just knowing them and making them acclimatize to your system, lahat na yun accounted for.
"With rookies, they look good because the level of competition is lower and the rookies who perform exceptionally well when they come up to the next level, it's those who are the rarer breeds."
Magnolia coach Chito Victolero agreed, saying that as promising as the new crop of players are, experience is still priceless when it comes to the PBA.
"May bentahe yung free agent na may experience," he said.
Victolero likened it to the case of Rafi Reavis, who at 43 years of age, is still going strong.
"Rafi has an expiring contract, but because of his experience and IQ, nakakalaro pa siya. So we preferred na kuhanin muna siya dahil yung role niya, nagagampanan pa rin niya," he said.
Victolero, however, pointed out that re-signing players like Reavis also comes with a caveat for Magnolia, since they also want the Fil-Am center to mentor the next batch of bigs for the team.
"Kailangan mo rin magpabata, so gusto din namin na maabutan niya yung ipi-pick namin para maturuan niya at matulungan niya mag-mature," he said.
As talent-laden as this draft class is, Victolero warned that there is no guarantee that even the top prospects can make the same impact once they get to the PBA.
"Meron talagang player na hinog eh, yung pag kinuha mo, ready na agad makatulong. Makikita mo naman yung potential sa bata," he said. "Doon papasok yung beterano, kasi pag puro bata, medyo matagal yung proseso ng maturity and in turn, mas mahirap manalo. Kumpara sa mangilan-ngilan na exposed sila sa veterans, nakikita nila yung attitude kaya mas madali."
That, in a nutshell, shows why the PBA is truly a grown man's league.
Just take a look at the Clark bubble: all four semifinalists in the 2020 PBA Philippine Cup are among in the top six of the league's oldest lineups, at least 0.5 year older than the league average of 30.1 years old.
Meanwhile, three of the four teams that were immediately booted out are among the youngest in average age, with Terrafirma being the youngest at 27.1 years old.
Guiao said that for the contenders at least, adding at least two to three new faces from the draft can already be considered the standard; bringing in fresh blood more than that can already be considered as a "major revamp."
"Every year naman, there will be two to three revisions in your lineup. Rare na yung four to five players, but anything more than that, to me, is unusual," he said.
With a fresh batch of rookies coming in and the bench players holding their breath, expect the situation to gain a little clarity only by Sunday especially for teams like Phoenix, Alaska, and Magnolia, which only have about 10 players under contract.
"Half of the teams feel secured, habang yung other half to the borderline, meron dyan syempreng apprehensions. That's just natural," said Guiao.
Which truly makes the science of roster-building a tricky task on its own.
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