SAN Miguel’s defeat to Converge on Wednesday in the PBA 49th Season Philippine Cup has opened a scenario of a six-way tie for second-place in the team standings.
READ: Converge averts collapse against SMB, steers clear of No. 8 seed
At the moment, the Beermen are tied with Barangay Ginebra and Magnolia at second place on 7-3 win-loss records, followed by Converge at solo fifth with a 7-4 mark. Tied for sixth place are TNT and Rain or Shine on 6-4 slates entering the final two playdates of the elimination round.
A tie for 7-4 could occur with a TNT win over Magnolia on Friday, a San Miguel loss to NorthPort on Sunday, and a Ginebra victory vs. Rain or Shine on Sunday, leaving the seedings to be determined by the quotient system.
Ginebra, SMB look good in this scenario
As we try to put our head around this very complicated scenario, there are two teams that have the twice-to-beat within reach if this happens. And based on unofficial computations, it is Ginebra and San Miguel.
The Gin Kings have a +31 point differential in this scenario, and because of this, are in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed in the quarterfinals. They are likely going to secure that second rank even with a loss to the Elasto Painters - unless it is by a very, very wide margin.
The Beermen follow with a +9 point differential, and looks settled at No. 3 with twice-to-beat advantage even with a loss to the Batang Pier.
Also based on the unofficial computation, Converge, with no more games to be played, is no longer in contention for a playoff incentive in the event of a six-way tie at 7-4 due to a -12 point differential.
That leaves the last spot for the twice-to-beat advantage to be determined by Magnolia, TNT, and Rain or Shine. At the moment, the Hotshots have a -3 point differential followed by the Tropang 5G with a -12, and the Elasto Painters with a -13.
The seedings will now be based on the winning margin of TNT against Magnolia on Friday, and Rain or Shine vs. Ginebra on Sunday.
And this is where it becomes interesting.
TNT, Magnolia, Rain or Shine battle for last twice-to-beat
Based on unofficial computations, two things must happen in order for Magnolia to secure the twice-to-beat in this scenario. First, if the Hotshots lose, it must only be four points or less to TNT. Then, Rain or Shine must also only win by five points or less, and Magnolia will get the twice-to-beat advantage.
Two things must also occur for the Tropang 5G to get the playoff incentive. They must win by five points or more, and the Elasto Painters must only win by five points or less.
For Rain or Shine, the winning margin it has to mount against Ginebra to secure the twice-to-beat advantage will all depend on the winning margin of TNT over the Hotshots.
Please take note that all scenarios in this story are unofficial and are only presented for us to get a better idea on how the race for quarterfinals seedings are likely to be determined.
But simply put, San Miguel, Ginebra, and Magnolia must win, so they can get the twice-to-beat, and avoid all the complications with this scenario.
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