BARANGAY Ginebra is closing in on obtaining a twice-to-beat advantage in the PBA 49th Season Philippine Cup, based on scenarios heading into the final day of eliminations on Sunday.
However, there is still a slight chance that the Gin Kings could lose out on a twice-to-beat advantage - if it isn’t careful in their tiff against Rain or Shine.
A win by Ginebra against Rain or Shine will secure a twice-to-beat advantage for the two-time Season 49 runner-up.
Conversely then, will the Gin Kings miss lose the playoff incentive if they get beat by the Elasto Painters? Not right away.
A loss by Ginebra will send them to a tie with Rain or Shine and Converge at fourth-place in the standings with a 7-4 record - and this is assuming that San Miguel wins over NorthPort in the first game on Sunday.
Breaking the tie is where the final score of the game between the Gin Kings and Elasto Painters will come into play.
At the moment, Ginebra is in the driver’s seat in terms of point differential to be used to break ties, as it is currently at +19 after its 85-66 win over Converge last May 10.
The FiberXers are next with -9 following its 107-97 win over Rain or Shine last April 30, with RoS bringing up the rear with -10.
Based on computations, the Gin Kings are safely through to the top four even with a loss - as long as the margin of defeat is 14 points or lower.
For example, a 14-point loss for Ginebra gives it a +5 point differential, still better than the the Elasto Painters who move up to +4. Ginebra claims the fourth seed and twice-to-beat advantage, as Rain or Shine will either be No. 5 or 6 based on the final score.
If the Gin Kings let the game get away, however, and lose by 15 points or more, the Elasto Painters are going to secure the twice-to-beat advantage.
For example, RoS's 15-point win makes its point differential +5, edging out what would be a +4 for Ginebra. RoS will then own the playoff incentive together with the fourth seed, while Ginebra drops to No. 5.
Four-way tie for third-place among SMB, Ginebra, Converge, RoS
There is also a possibility of a four-way tie at third-place with a 7-4 record if San Miguel loses to NorthPort. In this scenario, the margin will slightly change.
In this logjam, the Beermen automatically secure No. 3. Ginebra must only lose by 13 points or less to Rain or Shine to take the No. 4 and the twice-to-beat advantage.
If the Gin Kings lose by 14 points or more, the Elasto Painters will be at No. 4. In the event of a Ginebra loss by 14 or more, the Gin Kings will either be at No. 5 or No. 6 depending on quotient - or the points scored divided by points against between the four teams in games involving themselves.
Complicated all in all, yes.
And to make sure none of it will even come up, Ginebra just needs to win.
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