CHICAGO -- Although my membership to the coach Leo Austria fan club has expired, I am actively predicting that San Miguel Beer will win the PBA Philippine Cup.
San Miguel vs TNT prediction
The Beermen have most of the requisite elements of a champion team: A great offense, No. 1 in the league at 101.7 points per. Talent across all positions. Bench depth. And championship experience.
Most importantly, San Miguel has super size, which is especially paramount in an all-Filipino conference.
The only wrinkle in the SMC's flagship franchise is a defense that can be lazy and sloppy. They ranked 10th among 12 teams in points allowed during the elimination rounds at a high 94.7.
But the Beermen have since cleaned up some of the clutter. And when summoned to the test, they've proven that their defense can wield restraint and tenacity as shown in Game Five and Game Seven of the semifinals where they held Meralco to 78 and 89 points, respectively.
At the PBA Finals press conference, Austria pegged the title showdown as a "50-50" toss-up.
Austria won't be participating in the math olympics anytime soon. And I don't buy the false modesty, either.
THE MORE ACCURATE NUMBER HERE ARE 70-30 WITH SAN MIGUEL AS HEAVY FAVORITES.
The league's leading scorer at 21.7 points per during the elimination round, Mikey Williams is the epitome of the flair and explosiveness of TNT. And with Roger Pogoy second-best scoring at 19 per, the Tropang Giga have more than just a puncher's chance.
But I like the quiet efficiency and reclaimed dominance of six-time league MVP June Mar Fajardo. After posting a beastly 18.5 points and 13.5 rebounds a game during the elims, Fajardo is making these playoffs as a personal playground where he is cementing his next Best Player of the Conference award.
Yes, it isn't hard to be mesmerized by the shot-making abilities of Mikey, who converts 47.5 percent of his 2-point field goals and 36.6 percent of his 3-point shots.
But like most volume shooters he has his fair share lows and quiet nights. Led by the tireless, relentless Chris Ross, San Miguel has a lot of bodies to throw on Mikey and make life difficult for TnT's more than a million-peso-a-month hired gun.
The blur-like resurgence of Jayson Castro is wonderful to behold. After averaging 11.5 points 4.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per during the elims Castro has emerged as a force in the postseason.
But Castro, whose Game Three trey rescued TNT from Magnolia on the way to the Finals, is 36 years with a dotted history of injuries. It is fair to attach a question mark when discussing whether his rebirth is sustainable against San Miguel's revered Death Five 2.0.
Chot Reyes is easily the better tactician than Austria but because he is juggling another job as Gilas head coach, Reyes is expected to miss Games Two and Three of the Finals. Those are absences TNT can ill afford.
That's not an indictment against the abilities of Reyes' assistants. It's just an affirmation that players generally respond better to the head coach than the substitute.
BOARDWORK. San Miguel is No. 1 in the PBA in rebounds with 51.9 per, including 16 on the offensive boards. The Beermen are No.3 in fastbreak points at 13.2, highlighting their speed and vigor inside the paint.
TnT needs to overcome those strengths by shooting the ball well and limiting San Miguel in transition.
Seven games is a long series.
But in the end. San Miguel has no business losing this one.
Get more of the latest sports news & updates on SPIN.ph