NLEX has the best odds of securing the No. 1 pick in the PBA Season 51 Draft, with Titan Ultra having a very slim chance of stealing it, as the 50th Season Governors’ Cup eliminations nears its conclusion.
Blackwater faces elimination in its final game against Barangay Ginebra on Friday, and a loss would give it the top overall pick, based on the computation the league uses to determine the draft order.
The draft order is determined by the teams' rankings in each of the three conferences, multiplied by a percentage. The Philippine Cup is given a higher weight of 40-percent, with the Commissioner’s and Govs’ Cup both at 30-percent.
READ: NLEX, Ginebra projected to get top two picks in next draft. Here's why
The Bossing get 11.3 points from that computation - if they finish 11th in the Govs’ Cup with a loss to the Gin Kings. They placed 11th in the All-Filipino and 12th in the Comm's Cup.
However, Blackwater has already given up those draft rights to the Road Warriors last February 2024, when the former dealt Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser to the latter.
Titan Ultra's - or even Terrafirma's - chance
Nonetheless, there remains a very slim chance of the Giant Risers picking first.
In the computation to determine the draft order, Titan Ultra amassed 10.5, in a tie with Terrafirma at the close of their campaigns in the ongoing season.
The Giant Risers placed ninth in the Philippine Cup, 11th in the Comm's Cup, and 12th in the Govs' Cup, while the Dyip finished 12th in the Philippine Cup, 10th in the Comm's Cup, and ninth in the Govs' Cup.
Upon verification, such ties in the draft order computations will be broken through head-to-head matchups during the season, contrary to the initial report by this writer that the likely tiebreak will be the placing in the All-Filipino.
And by virtue of its 1-3 win-loss record against Terrafirma this season, Titan Ultra will take the higher draft position between the two teams in this scenario.
But for the Giant Risers to, indeed, get No. 1, they need Blackwater to reach the playoffs.
To do so, though, the Bossing not only need to triumph over Ginebra, but also win by 45 points or more, based on unofficial computations.
The Dyip, meanwhile, could be picking No. 3 if Blackwater misses the quarterfinals, but could go up to No. 2 if the Bossing, against all odds, reach the playoffs.
Only, Terrafirma also traded away those draft rights, this one to the Gin Kings, as part of the Maverick Ahanmisi deal in October 2025.
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