BARANGAY Ginebra is in a precarious situation coming down to the final week of the PBA Philippine Cup eliminations, holding solo eighth place in the team standings with a 4-6 win-loss record.
Ginebra still has one final game to play against Meralco, the same team it dominated over the past few seasons including in last year’s semifinals where Scottie Thompson's clutch three-pointer ended the Bolts' season.
Running second to TnT at 7-2 (win-loss) and just ahead of Magnolia (8-3), the Bolts need to win one of their final two games to assure themselves of a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals.
Three other games will also be played in the final week: Alaska takes on San Miguel and NorthPort, respectively, and Meralco faces NLEX. The results of these games will all have a bearing on the quarterfinal race.
Where will Ginebra end up if it loses to Meralco? Let’s take a look.
POSSIBLE THREE-WAY TIE
While Ginebra is in eighth, ninth-placers Phoenix Super LPG and Terrafirma are still not out of the running for a playoff berth even though they have already concluded their elims campaigns with 4-7 win-loss slates.
A loss to Meralco will drop Ginebra to a three-way tie with Phoenix and Terrafirma. As per league’s rules, the PBA quotient system will be used to break ties except when two teams are deadlocked at eighth spot, in which case a playoff game will be held.
According to PBA rules, ties of three or more at No. 8 will be broken by having the two teams with superior quotients facing off in a playoff and the others eliminated outright.
Under such a scenario, Phoenix and Barangay Ginebra will clash in a playoff due to superior quotients of 1.0281 and 1.0110, respectively, with Terrafirma eliminated.
POSSIBLE FOUR-WAY TIE
As if a triple-tie isn't complicated enough for Ginebra, a four-way tie would signal the end of the Gin Kings’ title-retention bid. That will occur with a Ginebra loss and an Alaska win against either San Miguel or NorthPort.
If that happens, a tie for eighth at 4-7 among Phoenix Super LPG, Terrafirma, Alaska, and Barangay Ginebra will materialize. Based on the quotient, the Gin Kings’ loss to the Dyip will come back to haunt them.
A four-way tie will have the Fuel Masters and the Dyip playing off for No. 8 spot, thanks to their 1.0480 and 1.0327 quotients, respectively, with the Aces and the Gin Kings eliminated due to inferior 0.9644 and 0.9557 quotients.
OUTRIGHT ELIMINATION
The Gin Kings will say goodbye to their title if they lose to the Bolts and the Aces sweep their matches against San Miguel and NorthPort this week to go up to 5-6. According to PBA statistics chief Fidel Mangonon, such a scenario will end a streak of 24 successive playoff appearances for Ginebra in the All-Filipino/Philippine Cup, the premier conference of the league - a record it currently shares with San Miguel.
A Ginebra exit would also mark the first time since Shell in 2000 that an All-Filipino/ Philippine Cup champion fails to make the playoffs, according to Mangonon.
WIN WON'T ASSURE PLAYOFF BERTH
Even with a win over Meralco, a playoff appearance won't be automatic for Ginebra since there is still the possibility of a four-team deadlock with NLEX, NorthPort, and Alaska for sixth at 5-6 if the Aces sweep their games against San Miguel and NorthPort.
Under such a scenario, the winning margin of Alaska against NorthPort would have a big say on the rankings, but it's likely that Ginebra would end up in a playoff for No. 8 since losses to the NLEX and Alaska would hurt its quotient.
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