THE PBA Commissioner’s Cup is in the final stretch of the elimination round and yet only two things are settled — Rain or Shine (9-1 win-loss) will be the top seed in the quarterfinals while NLEX and Blackwater are out of the playoff picture.
The rest of the seven places in the quarterfinals are still up for grabs, with three teams still in contention for the final twice-to-beat incentive in the quarterfinals and five other teams battling for the final spots in the Last Eight.
Since all other scenarios are still very fluid, let’s focus first on the race for the No. 2 spot – and the final twice-to-beat spot in the quarterfinals.
Four teams - Alaska, TNT KaTropa, Meralco, and reigning champion San Miguel – currently occupy the No. 2 to 5 places, but only three of them, save for the Beermen, are still in contention for the No. 2 seed.
The Aces and KaTropa are tied for second place with a 7-3 record with one game left in their elimination-round schedule. The Bolts have already finished their elims campaign with a 7-4 card, while the Beermen, after a slow start, have moved up to 5-4.
Keep in mind the rules of the PBA in case of tiebreaks: ties are broken through the quotient system unless the tie is for the eighth seed, in which case, a playoff will be called.
Heading into the final stretch, here are the games that will have a say on where the four teams will finish
Alaska: Phoenix (July 6)
TNT: Rain or Shine (July 7)
Meralco: DONE
San Miguel: Blackwater (July 4), Magnolia (July 7)
Let’s take a look at the scenarios:
Scenario 1
Alaska wins, TNT loses, San Miguel wins final two games.
ALA 8-3
MER 7-4 (2)
TNT 7-4 (1)
SMB 7-4 (-3)
A victory by Alaska will give the Aces the No. 2 seed and the twice-to-beat incentive, while Meralco takes the third seed by virtue of a higher quotient following its eight-point win over San Miguel last May 9. TNT gets the fourth spot where it will face San Miguel, which will end up as the fifth seed.
Scenario 2
TNT wins, Alaska loses, San Miguel wins final two games.
TNT 8-3
MER 7-4 (23)
ALA 7-4 (-13)
SMB 7-4 (-10)
TNT clinches the No. 2 seed, with Meralco settling for the third spot via the quotient tiebreak having beaten Alaska and San Miguel by a total of 23 points. No. 4 Alaska and No. 5 San Miguel clash in the best-of-three quarterfinals.
Scenario 3
TNT wins, Alaska wins, San Miguel wins two games
ALA 8-3 (Alaska beat TNT, 110-100)
TNT 8-3
MER 7-4 (Meralco beat San Miguel, 93-85)
SMB 7-4
With Alaska and TNT ending up tied following wins over Phoenix and Rain or Shine respectively, the Aces take the No. 2 spot by virtue of their 110-100 win over the KaTropa last May 13. Meralco secures the No. 4 with its 93-85 win over San Miguel last May 9.
Scenario 4
Alaska wins, TNT wins, San Miguel wins one of two games
ALA 8-3 (Alaska beat TNT, 110-100)
TNT 8-3
MER 7-4
SMB 6-5
Same result as Scenario 3 with Alaska taking No. 2, TNT No. 3, and Meralco No. 4. As for the No. 5, it still depends on the results of other matches.
Scenario 5
Alaska wins, TNT loses, San Miguel wins one of two games
ALA 8-3
TNT 7-4 (TNT beat Meralco, 91-85)
MER 7-4
SMB 6-5
Alaska will get the second twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals while TNT gets the No. 3 spot by virtue of a better tiebreak quotient over Meralco following its six-point win last June 22. No. 5 is still not a lock for San Miguel, its place depending on the results of the next games.
Scenario 6
TNT wins, Alaska loses, San Miguel wins one of two games
TNT 8-3
MER 7-4 (Meralco beat Alaska, 89-74)
ALA 7-4
SMB 6-5
TNT secures the No. 2 spot, with Meralco getting the No. 3 spot by virtue of the Bolts’ win over Alaska last June 17. The Aces’ defeat against Phoenix bring them down to No. 4. Like scenarios 4 and 5, the Beermen will not be assured of the No. 5 slot.
Scenario 7
TNT loses, Alaska loses, San Miguel wins one of two games
MER 7-4 (9)
TNT 7-4 (-4)
ALA 7-4 (-5)
SMB 6-5
Meralco gets the twice-to-beat due to a superior quotient, with TNT and Alaska taking the No. 3 and No. 4 spots. San Miguel also not assured of No. 5.
Scenario 8
TNT loses, Alaska loses, San Miguel wins two games
MER 7-4 (17)
ALA 7-4 (-3)
SMB 7-4 (-5)
TNT 7-4 (-9)
This is where it gets interesting. This scenario will result in a four-way tie. But Meralco takes the No. 2 and the twice-to-beat edge with a +17 quotient. Alaska ends up at No. 3, San Miguel No. 4, and TNT No. 5.
CONCLUSION:
- Alaska only needs to win against Phoenix to get the No. 2.
- TNT gets No. 2 if the KaTropa beats Rain or Shine and Alaska loses to Phoenix
- Meralco can still get the No. 2 spot if it ends up in a three-way tie with Alaska and TNT, and a four-way tie with Alaska, San Miguel, and TNT
- San Miguel is no longer in contention for the twice-to-beat in the quarters.
- If Alaska loses, the Aces can drop to as low as No. 4
- TNT can still drop as low as No. 5 if it loses to Rain or Shine.
- The lowest Meralco can finish is No. 4.
- The Beermen can go as high as No. 4 only if it wins all two remaining games and finishes in a four-way tie.
- The Beermen run the risk of sliding to a lower seed in the quarterfinals if it loses one or both its remaining games.
So what happens if San Miguel finishes at 6-5? What if San Miguel drops its last two games and ends up at 5-6? That’s another story in itself with the tight race in the middle of the pack. And that’s for another day.
(To be continued)
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