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    Four games left, four playoff berths up for grabs. See scenarios

    Jul 6, 2018

    TWO playdates left in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup elimination round and while the top four are pretty much set, the seedings in the bottom four have yet to be determined. Five teams are also fighting for the last four quarterfinal berths.

    Take note ties are broken through the quotient system, except for the eighth spot where a playoff will be called. In the event of a triple-tie, the team with the superior quotient will get the higher seed while the two teams with the inferior quotient battle it out in a playoff.

    The remaining games pit Alaska versus Phoenix, GlobalPort vs Ginebra, Magnolia vs San Miguel and Rain or Shine vs TNT, although only the first three will have a bearing in the battle for the last four quarterfinal berths.

    Prior to the last two playdates, the standings are as follows:

    San Miguel 6-4

    GlobalPort 5-5

    Ginebra 5-5

    Magnolia 5-5

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    Phoenix 4-6

    SPIN.ph examines the possibilities that might happen in the last two playdates and how it will affect the fortunes of the five teams fighting for places in the playoffs. This is how complicated the scenarios are:

    SCENARIO 1

    Alaska wins, GlobalPort wins, San Miguel wins

    5 San Miguel 7-4

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    6 GlobalPort 6-5

    7 Ginebra 5-6 (+20)

    8 Magnolia 5-6 (-20)

    Phoenix 4-7

    Ginebra ends up in a tie for seventh place with Magnolia with the Kings securing the No. 7 seed and the Hotshots taking No. 8.

    SCENARIO 2

    Alaska wins, GlobalPort wins, Magnolia wins

    5 Magnolia 6-5 (+5)

    6 GlobalPort 6-5 (-5)

    7 San Miguel 5-6 (+7)

    8 Ginebra 5-6 (-7)

    Phoenix 4-7

    Magnolia and GlobalPort end up in a tie with a 6-5 win-loss record, with the Hotshots clinching the No. 5 and the Batang Pier owning No. 6. San Miguel also finishes in a deadlock with Ginebra with a 5-6 slate with the Beermen grabbing the seventh seed and the Kings eighth.

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    SCENARIO 3

    Phoenix wins, GlobalPort wins, San Miguel wins

    5 San Miguel 7-4

    6 GlobalPort 6-5

    7 Ginebra 5-6 (+15)

    ? Phoenix 5-6 (+7)

    ? Magnolia 5-6 (-22)

    In this scenario, Ginebra, Phoenix, and Meralco finish the eliminations in a three-way tie for seventh place on 5-6 records. Under tiebreak rules, the team with the highest quotient gets the No. 7 seed and the other two battle in a playoff for the eighth and final spot in the quarterfinals. Ginebra will wind up at No. 7 thanks to its +15 quotient, with Phoenix and Magnolia clashing in a playoff match.

    SCENARIO 4

    Phoenix wins, Ginebra wins, San Miguel wins

    5 San Miguel 7-4

    6 Ginebra 6-5

    7 Phoenix 5-6 (+29)

    ? Magnolia 5-6 (+3)

    ? GlobalPort 5-6 (-32)

    The Fuel Masters, Hotshots, and Batang Pier finish in a three-way tie. Phoenix grabs the No. 7 spot by virtue of its +29 quotient with Magnolia and GlobalPort battling for the No. 8 spot.

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    SCENARIO 5

    Alaska wins, Ginebra wins, San Miguel wins

    ­­5 San Miguel 7-4

    6 Ginebra 6-5

    7 Magnolia 5-6 (+5)

    8 GlobalPort 5-6 (-5)

    Phoenix 4-7

    Magnolia ends up in a tie with GlobalPort, with the Hotshots taking the seventh seed and the Batang Pier ending up at eighth.

    SCENARIO 6

    Phoenix wins, GlobalPort wins, Magnolia wins

    5 Magnolia 6-5 (+5)

    6 GlobalPort 6-5 (-1)

    7 San Miguel 6-5 (-4)

    ? Ginebra 5-6

    ?Phoenix 5-6

    Phoenix gains a playoff against Ginebra for the eighth spot with Magnolia, GlobalPort, and San Miguel taking the fifth, sixth, and seventh spots, respectively, the order determined by the quotient system.

    SCENARIO 7

    Alaska wins, Ginebra wins, Magnolia wins

    1. Magnolia wins by 13 points or less

    5 Ginebra 6-5 (+27)

    6 San Miguel 6-5 (-6)

    7 Magnolia 6-5 (-7)

    8 GlobalPort 5-6

    Phoenix 4-7

    1. Magnolia wins by 14 points or more

    5 Ginebra 6-5 (+27)

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    6 Magnolia 6-5 (-6)

    7 San Miguel 6-5 (-7)

    8 GlobalPort 5-6

    Phoenix 4-7

    Ginebra takes No. 5, and GlobalPort slides to No. 8. Placings of Magnolia and San Miguel depends on the winning margin of the Hotshots.

    SCENARIO 8

    Phoenix wins, Ginebra wins, Magnolia wins

    1. Magnolia wins by 13 points or less

    5 Ginebra 6-5 (+27)

    6 San Miguel 6-5 (-6)

    7 Magnolia 6-5 (-7)

    ? GlobalPort 5-6

    ? Phoenix 5-6

    1. Magnolia wins by 14 points or more

    5 Ginebra 6-5 (+27)

    6 Magnolia 6-5 (-6)

    7 San Miguel 6-5 (-7)

    ? GlobalPort 5-6

    ? Phoenix 5-6

    Ginebra gets No. 5, and Phoenix arranges a playoff game with GlobalPort for No. 8. Placings of Magnolia and San Miguel will depend on the winning margin.

    CONCLUSION

    - San Miguel gets No. 5 with a win over Magnolia, but can drop to No. 6 or 7 with a loss to Magnolia, depending on the losing margin against the Hotshots.

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    - GlobalPort can still secure the No. 5 or 6 spot with a win over Ginebra, but can drop to No. 7, 8, or a playoff for No. 8 with a loss.

    - Magnolia can still reach as high as No. 6 with a victory over San Miguel but needs to win by 14 points or more in order to do that. A defeat can be costly as the Hotshots can still be eliminated in a playoff match for No. 8.

    - A win by Phoenix will not assure the Fuel Masters a quarterfinal seat as they may will go through a playoff match either Ginebra, Magnolia, or GlobalPort.

    - Ginebra can go as high as No. 5 with a win but a loss could still drop the Kings out of quarterfinal contention with a defeat in a playoff match.

    Yes, it’s a wild race to the quarterfinals indeed. So let's sit back and enjoy.

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