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    Will it be SMB vs Star in PBA quarterfinals? Take a look at playoff scenarios

    Apr 14, 2016
    Coaches Jong Uichico, Boyet Fernandez, Yeng Guiao, Tim Cone, Leo Austria and Alex Compton have a little mathematics to do to learn about their teams' positions in the playoffs. 

    THE PBA Commissioner’s Cup postseason cast may have already been completed, but a lot of movement is still bound to happen after the last day of the elimination round on Friday at the Smart-Araneta Coliseum.

    Only Star, which caught the last bus to the playoffs after its 86-73 win over Mahindra on Wednesday, is affixed among all the quarterfinals-bound teams, being in the eighth spot, waiting for the squad that will finish at No. 1.

    Here are the standings for the postseason participants as of Thursday:

    Meralco               8-3

    SMB                       7-3        

    GIN                        7-4        

    ROS                       7-4        

    Alaska                  6-4        

    TNT                       6-4        

    NLEX                    5-5

    Star                        5-6

     

    And here’s the schedule for the last playdate of the eliminations at the Big Dome.

    4:15 p.m.: Alaska vs NLEX

    7 p.m.: Tropang TNT vs San Miguel Beer

     

    There are four scenarios left. Two of the four scenarios will see the quarterfinals start right away on Sunday, while the other two scenarios will see a playoff happening to determine the No. 2 seed that stakes a twice-to-beat advantage in the first round.

    The top two seeds face the seventh and eighth seeds, respectively, while the third seed takes on the sixth seed, and the fourth and fifth seeds face off in a best-of-three series.

     

    If Alaska and SMB win:

     

    SMB                       8-3

    Meralco               8-3

    Alaska                  7-4

    GIN                        7-4

    ROS                       7-4

    TNT                       6-5

    NLEX                    5-6

    Star                        5-6

     

    The Beermen will claim the top seed and a twice-to-beat edge in the quarterfinals against sister side Star. Meralco gets second spot and the other win-once incentive against sister squad NLEX. Alaska finishes at third and takes on Tropang TNT, while Ginebra and Rain or Shine square off.

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    If Alaska loses and SMB wins:

     

    SMB                       8-3

    Meralco               8-3

    GIN                        7-4

    ROS                       7-4

    Alaska                  6-5

    TNT                       6-5

    NLEX                    6-5

    Star                        5-6

     

    The top two seeds are the same as in the first scenario.

    But a complication arises among the bottom seeds with Alaska, Tropang TNT, and NLEX finishing in a tie at 6-5.

    PBA chief statistician Fidel Mangonon III said it depends on how many points NLEX beats Alaska, but the current point differential favors Alaska (+8) over TNT (-3) and NLEX (-5).

    If that stays, Ginebra will finish third and face TNT, ROS stays at fourth and take on Alaska, while the top seeds face NLEX and Star, respectively.

     

    If Alaska wins and SMB loses:

     

    Meralco               8-3

    Alaska                  7-4

    TNT                       7-4

    GIN                        7-4

    SMB                       7-4

    ROS                       7-4

    NLEX                    5-6

    Star                        5-6

     

    This is the first of two scenarios that requires a playoff for the second seed.

    Meralco stays atop and faces Star, then a five-way tie for second spot arises, with Alaska and TNT having the superior quotient and facing each other for the second seed and the second twice-to-beat edge against NLEX. The playoff loser settles for a best-of-three affair against Rain or Shine, while Ginebra and  SMB square off.

     

    If Alaska and SMB lose:

     

    Meralco               8-3

    TNT                       7-4

    Gin                         7-4

    SMB                       7-4

    ROS                       7-4

    NLEX                    6-5

    Alaska                  6-5

    Star                        5-6

     

    The Bolts remain at No. 1 against the Hotshots, while TNT and Ginebra face will have to face off for the second seed and a meeting against Alaska. The loser faces NLEX in a best-of-three encounter, while the Beermen takes on the Elasto Painters. 

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    Coaches Jong Uichico, Boyet Fernandez, Yeng Guiao, Tim Cone, Leo Austria and Alex Compton have a little mathematics to do to learn about their teams' positions in the playoffs. 
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