SAN Beda’s win over Emilio Aguinaldo College on Wednesday’s double-header in the NCAA Season 101 gave some clarity over at Group B, the so-called ‘Group of Death’ with two gamedays remaining in the classification phase..
The win assured the Red Lions of the top spot of the group while the St. Benilde Blazers get the second twice-to-beat advantage.
READ: San Beda clinches Group B top seed with comeback win over EAC
The Letran Knights will then settle for an outright quarterfinals spot at third place while the JRU Heavy Bombers and the EAC Generals dispute the final quarterfinals spot in Group B.
Group A is where it gets tricky.
As it stands, the only thing clear in the group so far would be the play-in for fourth place game which will be settled between Lyceum (3-9) and San Sebastian (3-10), with the winner facing the twice-to-beat San Beda in the quarterfinals.
There are still implications, though, within the top three as Mapua takes on Arellano this Friday, and Perpetual battles the play-in bound Lyceum on Sunday.
Perpetual, at 8-4, still sits atop of the group. It’s assured of the twice-to-beat no matter what happens, but their place atop Group A still hangs in the balance in the remaining two games.
Mapua, at 7-5, can still dislodge Perpetual atop the group while also being at risk of falling to number three and facing a win-twice disadvantage at the quarterfinals should it lose to the 6-6 Arellano, albeit with some prerequisites, the last team in Group A that's in the running for a twice-to-beat spot.
READ: Arellano still alive for NCAA playoff incentive after routing LPU
Here, we take a look at the possible scenarios as we reach the final two gamedays of the classification phase.
For starters, the league is clear that it will be applying FIBA rules to break ties.
Breaking ties, according to FIBA is as follows:
With that in mind let’s take a look at all the possible scenarios.
Mapua beats Arellano, Perpetual beats Lyceum
The most straightforward approach would be Mapua and Perpetual winning. The Cardinals will clinch the twice-to-beat advantage with a victory over Arellano this Friday as it would push them to 8-5 and drop the Chiefs to 6-7.
In this scenario, Perpetual also clinches its top-seed by ending a tumultuous three-game run at Lyceum’s expense, giving the Altas a 9-4 record and winning the group.
The pairings would then be:
(1A) Perpetual vs. (B play-in winner) JRU/EAC
(2A) Mapua vs. (3B) Letran
(1B) San Beda vs. (A play-in winner) LPU/SSC-R
(2B) St. Benilde vs.(3A) Arellano
Mapua beats Arellano, Lyceum beats Perpetual
This is where the first of the FIBA tiebreak rule would apply as a Mapua win and a Perpetual loss would have the two squads tied at 8-5.
Since both teams are 1-1 against each other this season, point differential in head-to-head games will be the criteria.
Mapua’s 77-61 win over Perpetual in their second meeting will be critical as it negates the Altas’ 75-65 victory over the Cardinals in their first meeting, giving the hosts and defending champions a +6 in head-to-head point differential.
The pairings would then be:
(1A) Mapua vs. (B play-in winner) JRU/EAC
(2A) Perpetual vs. (3B) Letran
(1B) San Beda vs. (A play-in winner) LPU/SSC-R
(2B) St. Benilde vs. (3A) Arellano
It will be interesting to note that Perpetual’s top-seed status will only be threatened should Mapua win over Arellano.
Now let’s take a look at the scenarios where Arellano wins. This is where things get a bit complicated.
Arellano beats Mapua by a point or two
An Arellano win over Mapua will have the two teams tied at 7-6. However, it doesn’t necessarily give the Chiefs the twice-to-beat advantage.
The Chiefs winning over the Cardinals by less than three points would still give the hosts the twice-to-beat advantage given Mapua’s better point-differential between the two teams after beating the Chiefs by three, 90-87 in their first meeting.
The pairings would then be:
(1A) Perpetual vs. (B play-in winner) JRU/EAC
(2A) Mapua vs. (3B) Letran
(1B) San Beda vs. (A play-in winner) LPU/SSC-R
(2B) St. Benilde vs (3A). Arellano
Arellano beats Mapua by four or more
This is the least complicated way that coach Chico Manabat’s boys will get the twice-to-beat advantage. After losing by three in their first go-around, a win by a four-point margin or more will give the Chiefs the playoff incentive come the quarterfinals.
In this scenario, the finals rematch between the Blazers and the Cardinals will be played in the quarterfinals, with the boys of coach Charles Tiu getting two chances at eliminating the team which broke their hearts in the finals of last season.
The pairings would then be:
(1A) Perpetual vs. (B play-in winner) JRU/EAC
(2A) Arellano vs. (3B) Letran
(1B) San Beda vs. (A play-in winner) LPU/SSC-R
(2B) St. Benilde vs. (3A) Mapua
Arellano beats Mapua by three
Head-to-head point differential would go out the window assuming the Chiefs beat the Cardinals by three points as it will basically be even between the two teams.
So we head to the points scored criteria.
Should Arellano beat Mapua by three but score 89 points or less in it, then Mapua gets the second-seed by virtue of the points scored in head-to-head match criteria.
The pairings would then be:
(1A) Perpetual vs. (B play-in winner) JRU/EAC
(2A) Mapua vs. (3B) Letran
(1B) San Beda vs. (A play-in winner) LPU/SSC-R
(2B) St. Benilde vs.(3A) Arellano
BUT, if it scores 91 points or more, then the Chiefs will be the one getting the twice-to-beat advantage.
The pairings would then be:
(1A) Perpetual vs. (B play-in winner) JRU/EAC
(2A) Arellano vs. (3B) Letran
(1B) San Beda vs. (A play-in winner) LPU/SSC-R
(2B) St. Benilde vs. (3A) Mapua
So what happens if for some amazing co-incidence that Arellano beats Mapua with the same score of 90-87? Well it will all boil down to overall point differential between the games in the group.
Now we compute.
Arellano's Group Results:
- Mapua def. Arellano 90-87 (-3)
- Arellano def. SSC-R, 82-66 (+16)
- Arellano def. Lyceum, 92-65 (+27)
- Perpetual def. Arellano, 72-67 (-5)
- Arellano def. SSC-R, 78-71 (+7)
- Arellano def. Perpetual, 70-69 (+1)
- Arellano def. Lyceum, 74-56 (+18)
- Arellano def. Mapua, 90-87 (+3)
Total Point Differential for Arellano (Group Games):
= -3 + 16 + 27 - 5 + 7 + 1 + 18 + 3 = +64
Mapua's Group Results:
- Mapua def. Lyceum, 90-89 (+1)
- Mapua def. Arellano, 90-87 (+3)
- Perpetual def. Mapua, 75-65 (-10)
- Mapua def. SSC-R, 70-49 (+21)
- Mapua def. Lyceum, 78-73 (+5)
- Mapua def. Perpetual, 77-61 (+16)
- Mapua def. SSC-R 77-72 (+5)
- Arellano def. Mapua, 90-87 (-3)
Total Point Differential for Mapua (Group Games):
= +1 + 3 - 10 + 21 + 5 + 16 + 5 - 3 = +38
In that scenario, Arellano will get incentivized with the close losses to Mapua and Perpetual, and its blowout wins over Lyceum and San Sebastian as it gets the final twice-to-beat spot by virtue of a better point differential in group games, 64-38.
The pairings would then be:
(1A) Perpetual vs. (B play-in winner) JRU/EAC
(2A) Arellano vs. (3B) Letran
(1B) San Beda vs. (A play-in winner) LPU/SSC-R
(2B) St. Benilde vs. (3A) Mapua
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