IT wasn’t quite the home stand that Gilas Pilipinas and its legion of fans were hoping for after dropping a heartbreaking loss to New Zealand, before getting blown out by Australia to close out window two of the FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers.
The good: The Tall Blacks’ win over Guam assured Gilas of its entry in the second round of the qualifiers.
The bad: This would’ve been the perfect chance to take win number three and enter the next round of the qualifiers at least on .500, as the record from the first round will carry over entering the second round.
The ugly: Well, let’s hope it doesn’t get there, but all of a sudden, the possibility of Gilas Pilipinas missing the 2027 FIBA World Cup in Qatar – the first time since FIBA expanded the number of teams in the world cup to 32 – isn’t that far-fetched anymore.
The lucky seven
So how does the qualifying work again? For starters, eight spots are given to the Asia/Oceania region, and with Qatar hosting and getting an automatic qualification, that number drops to seven.
The top three teams of the two groups in the second round will be qualifying for the World Cup, with the best fourth placer of either group getting the seventh and final qualification spot in the process.
Teams who’ll be joining Gilas’ group in the second round would be the West Asian squads over at Group C, with Jordan, Iran and Syria looking likely as the three teams who’d be advancing to the next round.
READ: Cone looking to change up offense after Gilas misfires again
Like Australia, Jordan – who still has two matches against the struggling Iraqis in this round – remains unbeaten, and it would most likely stay that way unless Iran gets back at Jordan in window three.
But if Jordan and Iran come in with identical 5-1 records, then that only gives Gilas a taller order to climb come the second round.
All eyes on that New Zealand away game
That said, we’re getting ahead of ourselves here. Gilas can still turn things around with awe-inspiring performances in the third window when they visit New Zealand and Australia.
Sweeping the away games may be a tall order, but that would certainly erase Gilas’ missteps in their home game and put the nationals on a better position when they take on the west asian squads come the next round.
But if sweeping window three is too much of an ask, the least Gilas can do is make sure they enter the next round with at least three wins, while taking down New Zealand with them to keep their heads above water.
Of course, a little bit of assist from Jericho Cruz and Guam would help, but regardless of the result of Guam’s games against New Zealand and Australia, Gilas would be in a much better position with a big away win or two.
In that case, the third spot would be within reach, especially if Jordan sweeps Group C and Iran enters the second round with, at most, four wins
Winning in Auckland also means they won’t have to worry about New Zealand’s performances come the second round, as they’ll be entering the next phase with the same number of wins, assuming the Tall Blacks also beat Guam.
Lose both games in that window, however, and it’s gonna be like going through the eye of the needle for the Philippines, with little to no margin of error come the second round.
It’s not gonna get easier in the second round
While we're not gonna be facing Oceania’s juggernauts anymore, let’s not forget that we haven’t had much success against Jordan and Iran either.
Gilas is currently 1-1 against Jordan ever since FIBA adapted the World Cup Qualifiers system while they’ve fared worse against Iran, going 0-2 in that stretch.
READ: QMB excited to see college rival Phillips bring energy to Gilas
These two teams are also picking steam based on recent performances.
Iran made it to the semifinals of the FIBA Asia Cup last year – signalling the continuity of the squad’s basketball program in the post-Hamed Haddadi era.
Behind Meralco’s EASL Asian Import in Sina Vahedi, and veterans Benham Yakchali and Arsalan Kazemi, Iran continues to be dangerous.
Recent developments in Iran, however, could play a role with the team’s formation – with reports stating that Yakchali has ‘walked away’ from the national team given the unfortunate situation in the region now.
Jordan, on the other hand, remains dangerous even after crashing out early in the FIBA Asia Cup last year – and all it took was one major change from that line-up.
With former Toronto Raptor Jalen Harris taking over from naturalized player Dar Tucker, Jordan has been nothing short of impressive in the qualifier, with Harris forming a deadly backcourt tandem with veteran guard Freddy Ibrahim.
Harris is currently averaging 31 points a night through three games while hitting 48 percent of his threes in nearly 10 attempts from downtown per game. Ibrahim continues to be one of the best guards in Asia with averages of 15 points, 5.3 assists and 1.3 steals in that stretch.
Then you factor in the likes of Ahmad Al-Dwairi, the 6-10 big who can make plays from the post, and reliable wing Ahmad Alhamarsheh then that’s a handful for any team playing them in the second window.
In between the two squads, that’s four tough games in the next round for Gilas Pilipinas that they can’t afford to lose.
The best fourth placer?
Still, there’s a chance that Gilas qualifies in the world cup by virtue of being the best fourth placer in that group – but given the standings and the way things are going over at the end of the bracket, this isn’t something that Gilas should be banking on.
Being the best fourth placer, of course, means the team with either the superior standing or superior point differential from their groups, and granted that Gilas just lost by 27 against Australia on Sunday, it’s certainly not a position they want to be in.
As it stands, Japan, China, South Korea, Chinese Taipei, Lebanon and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are all scrambling for superior positions in the other groups. With how tight the games are being played in Group B and D, it makes this path so much harder.
While Gilas may have seemingly shot themselves in the foot by dropping the home game against New Zealand, all’s not lost – albeit now it’s going to be so much more difficult given the circumstances.
The good thing is that Gilas still holds its fate in its hands and there’s plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments entering the third window, and eventually the second round.
But having the time and finding time are two different things – and here’s hoping that Gilas sorts things out and finds a second wind moving forward.
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