IS another winless window in the FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers on the horizon for Gilas Pilipinas?
Playing without a naturalized player for the first time since 2022, Gilas is headed for a stormy weekend as they take on Jordan and Iran, each team with a 5-1 card. But there are some silver linings in the dark clouds surrounding Gilas.
For one, Kai Sotto returns after a two-year absence, giving the Philippine team the formidable frontcourt it needs with June Mar Fajardo and AJ Edu in the lineup. The team will have an extra boost from the crowd as well, as they enjoy homecourt advantage this time around.
READ Dwight Ramos stands defiant as Brownlee-less Gilas takes on Jordan
Still, questions and doubts abound as Tim Cone's Philippine side enters what could be a “prove it” window. Why? With two wins, Gilas will convince doubters that this young core can hold its own against Asia’s best. Go winless, and the tired chatter on whether this program can be successful without an import bailing the team out will only gets louder.
Just what kind of concerns hound Gilas entering this upcoming window? We try to answer some of the most pressing questions with some sizzling takes, backed by stats of course.
How big is the Justin Brownlee-sized hole?
Bigger than what people want to admit. With Brownlee, Gilas is losing more than a leading scorer. Averaging 21 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5 assists while making 54.2% of his field goals, that is primary scorer, lead playmaker and late-clock bailout package in one.
The silver lining: Gilas could unleash a more unpredictable offense. In fact, they showed spurts of that balanced attack against New Zealand last window with Brownlee locked down. But spurts won’t be enough to beat Iran or Jordan. It takes disciplined, consistent execution with better rebounding and fewer turnovers from start to finish if they want to avoid falling to 2–6 after this window.
Who makes the Final 12?
By the time you read this, the final 12 against Jordan may have been decided. But allow the stats to give an informed opinion. Australia and New Zealand exposed Gilas’ weaknesses in rebounding and perimeter defense. With Brownlee out, Gilas will also be looking for more perimeter playmaking and defensive versatility at the wing spot. With all those needs, the locks are a bit easy:
Sotto, Edu, Fajardo, Dwight Ramos, Kevin Quiambao, Carl Tamayo, Scottie Thompson, Chris Newsome, and Juan Gomez de Liano.
That leaves five names vying for the last 3 spots. The easier choice to make here is to add CJ Perez, who brings the scoring and energy spark off the bench that will be useful in times when the offense goes cold. Abarrientos could be more familiar with the offense while serving as a more reliable outside shooting threat, but size matters in this window, and Perez has him beat in that aspect.
That leaves Justin Arana, Troy Rosario, and Justin Baltazar fighting for the last 2 spots. Rosario has the familiarity edge with the Ginebra offense but Baltazar makes more sense for switchable rebounding, defense and some outside shooting help. (Both made the cut for Jordan, FYI). Arana could be the odd man out as he plays a younger, faster, but a bit smaller version of a big that Fajardo already fills for Gilas. Still, whoever makes the cut will bring unique strengths that Gilas will need in this window.
What should Gilas watch out for against Iran?
Sina Vahedi’s absence is a huge relief, but make no mistake, this Iran squad remains formidable as ever. With Vahedi out, 6-foot-8 guard Mohammad Amini, who has played in NBA Summer League and won a French Ligue title, steps in to take top playmaking duties. Arsalan Kazemi, Behnam Yakhchali, Piter Girgoorian and Iran’s experienced vets will test Gilas in rebounding as well as force the Philippine playmakers to play more disciplined in defensive rotations. This is a big, physical, cohesive Iran unit that can punish opponents with pinpoint passing, pressure defense, and relentless crashing on the offensive glass.
How can Gilas beat a deadlier, feistier Jordan?
The main threat to neutralize for Gilas is new Jordan naturalized player, the explosive combo guard Jalen Harris. Arguably the most dangerous guy in this window, the G-Leaguer turned international campaigner is averaging 27 points and shooting 45.3% from three in the qualifiers. He also dropped 42 and 29 against Syria and Iran, respectively, in the last window. Silver lining? He just joined Jordan a few days ago, so there might be some cohesion issues there. Still, Jordan has Ahmad Al Dwairi, Freddy Ibrahim and other vets who can punish Gilas if the defense overhelps on Harris. A selective blitz on Harris and tightening execution with fewer turnovers could help bring up the chances for a Gilas win here.
Which other games should Gilas take tabs on?
Every game in this window has ramifications for Gilas, but these two things should be on top of any Gilas fan’s priority watchlist:
- Australia vs Jordan and Iran vs New Zealand. A win by the Oceania teams will keep Gilas in the middle of the logjam for third or fourth place in the group, provided the Philippine squad also handles business with their own matchups. A loss by New Zealand to Iran could also make things interesting for the next meeting between Gilas and the Tall Blacks.
- Syria vs New Zealand. This one’s tricky. A loss by New Zealand gives Gilas a chance to inch closer to the Tall Blacks in the standings. But Syria, tied with Gilas currently at 2-4, also improves its card, putting pressure on the Philippine team to win their own games as well.
How worried should Gilas be about that scrimmage loss to the PBA-backed Asiad team?
It may be just a scrimmage, but Gilas shouldn’t shrug it off. For context, Gilas got back at the Robert Bolick-led Asiad team the next day, easing concerns. Losses in scrimmage happen to the best of them, just ask the original USA Dream Team. Still, that loss brought up legitimate red flags in spacing, execution, and chemistry for Gilas. They have time to clean up their execution and tighten their defense. Gilas must learn their lesson from that scrimmage loss and play tenacious defense, patient offense when the actual games matter.
Who gets the shot when the game is on the line now?
This would be a no-brainer if Brownlee was around. But the simple answer here is: whoever’s has the best, open shot.
Ramos has been the steadiest weapon on offense, next to Brownlee. But he’ll be well scouted by now. The X-factor is Sotto, who will draw the biggest gravity whenever he’s on the floor. Play the Ramos-Sotto two-man game well, and it should open up shots for Quiambao, Tamayo, or any reliable shooter who gets the call. Edu will also be waiting to attack in the dunker spot or as secondary screener.
There really is cause for optimism even if the forecast is stormy for Gilas. As long as the team plays patient, disciplined on both ends from tip off until the final buzzer, Gilas could emerge from the dark clouds stronger, better, brighter than ever.
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