Wild race to Final Four
Ateneo, coached by Norman Black, is the only team assured of a Final Four place so far. The next three spots are being contested by NU, La Salle, FEU and UST. Jerome Ascano

THE UAAP is down to its last two elimination-round playdates but only Ateneo has secured a semifinal berth so far, and the Final Four picture looks hazy at this time with eight possible scenarios.

 

Here are the remaining games of the four combatants for the last three spots in the Final Four.

Sept. 20

UST vs. UE

DLSU vs. Adamson

Sept. 23

FEU vs. NU

 

 

Scenario #1

 

This happens if UE beats UST, De La Salle defeats Adamson and FEU wins over NU. There will be a tie for third between De La Salle and UST for 9-5 win-loss.

This is a very interesting situation. Here is how ties are broken in the UAAP.

Series match-up

Points scored

Points allowed

Quotient

DLSU

82+53

84+51

1

UST

80+51

82+53

1

UST won in the first round in double overtime, 84-82, while De La Salle took its second round game, 53-51, on a buzzer-beater by Jeron Teng.

Since there is still a deadlock, UAAP will now turn to the third tiebreaker which is determined by computing the total points scored during the season divided by total points allowed in the eliminations giving the final game of their season much importance.

 

Scenario #2

This occurs if UE beats UST, Adamson defeats De La Salle and FEU wins over NU. The Bulldogs and the Green Archers will face each other in a playoff for the final spot in the semifinals.

 

Scenario #3

This occurs if UST beats UE, Adamson defeats De La Salle and NU wins over FEU. The Bulldogs will take the third spot due to a superior quotient, with the Tamaraws taking fourth spot and the Green Archers dislodged from the Final Four.

 

Scenario #4

This occurs if UST beats UE, De La Salle defeats Adamson and FEU downs NU. Ateneo will face fourth seed De La Salle while the Tamaraws will face the Tigers in a playoff for the second seeding, making it a virtual best-of-three semifinal series between them.

 

Scenario #5

This occurs if UST beats UE, Adamson downs De La Salle and FEU outclasses NU. Ateneo will face the winner of the NU-De La Salle showdown in a playoff for the fourth spot with FEU taking on UST in a virtual best-of-three semifinal series.

 

Scenario #6

If UE defeats UST, Adamson beats De La Salle and NU defeats FEU, UST will drop to fourth due to an inferior quotient with FEU and NU playing a playoff for the second spot in another virtual best-of-three showdown in the Final Four.

 

Scenario #7

If UST beats UE, De La Salle wins over Adamson and NU defeats FEU, the Bulldogs will capture the third spot because of a superior quotient. De La Salle and FEU will face each other in a do-or-die battle for the No. 4 spot and the right to play Ateneo in the Final Four.

 

Scenario #8

A quadruple tie for second place with a 9-5 record ensues if UE beats UST, De La Salle wins over Adamson and NU outclasses FEU.

In such a complicated scenario, NU will play FEU for the No. 2 spot due to a superior quotient, but only if the Bulldogs win over the Tamaraws in a high-scoring ball game by 23 or more points.

However, FEU is in danger of falling into a playoff for No. 4 with UST if they lose a low-scoring game to NU by 23 points or more. Hence, it will be De La Salle against NU for the twice-to-beat advantage in the semifinals.

As complex as the scenario already is, there's still one possibility that can further complicate things -- a replay of last Saturday's Ateneo-UST game which the Tigers lost, 66-68, but plan to question before the league's technical committee. 

Based on the calculations of UAAP chief statistician Pong Ducanes

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